Fluid Thoughts for UFC 312

An early look at Dan Tom's picks and plays for the upcoming UFC fight card

Thank you for subscribing and welcome to “Fluid Thoughts.”

Basically, these articles will offer my raw, unpolished thoughts on the upcoming card so that fight nerds and gamblers alike can see where I’m headed in an effort to spark your own thoughts and strategies regarding the festivities to come (to which you’re more then welcome to discuss with me or others in the comments below).

*Just understand that this is a ‘fluid’ article that will be edited throughout the week, so don’t take opinions here straight to the bank and be sure to check back to see my final thoughts – which will be locked in by Friday evening before officially posting picks and plays on Saturday morning.

UFC 312: Dricus Du Plessis vs. Sean Strickland

Main event thoughts:

Look. I know it’s yet another middleweight main event rematch, but lets just be grateful that this wasn’t the headliner for the first UFC Africa show, amirite?

But each fighter’s suspect statements outside of the octagon aside, there’s a genuine quality about both men that is worth acknowledging.

I’m not a fan of the usual media cycle involving milking Strickland for his usual slew of controversial quotes, which is sadly part in parcel for Strickland fight weeks. Even when some media members try to steer Strickland in a more professional direction, the cat is kinda already out of the bag for everyone regarding what our media climate (social and otherwise) encourages, so these fighters come out of the gate swinging in the direction of controversy.

I’m usually good about “sticking to sports,” so to speak, but this whole circus feels extra cringy after Bryce Mitchell’s anti-semetic, Hitler-praising podcast, much less Conor McGregor’s ‘hold my beer-esque’ N-word posting spree that proceeded shortly after.

Mitchell also apparently dabbled in some Japanese racism regarding the American’s concentration camps during World War 2, but I didn’t have the heart to listen to the one-nut nazi’s show.

But aside from anti-Asian racism continuing to fly under the radar in the MMA space, I can at least assure you that Strickland’s recent “least favorite race” social segment – where he cites ‘the China man’ as his least favorite race – has nothing to do with me picking against him here.

As I spell out in my MMA Junkie breakdown (that avoids these asides that I’m either punishing you with or entertaining you with here), I ultimately believe that this fight – as is the case with most rematches – comes down to game planning and adjustments.

My bias toward Xtreme Couture and Eric Nicksick aside, I’d give the Strickland team a slight edge in the game planning and preperation department. But Du Plessis and his head coach, Morne Visser, deserve some credit for their ability to both prepare and adjust on the fly.

It may feel like you’re watching an episode of “OZ” with the way in which Du Plessis and Visser interact in the corner (with Visser essentially treating DDP like a cheap prom date, for the most part), but there’s no questioning their chemistry and results.

By the way, for those who have watched the show OZ—this dynamic is definitely Beecher vs. Schillinger, is it not?

Anyways. I’m clearly digressing.

The point is, is that it’s ultimately up to the fighters to go in there and make the adjustments. And when it comes to that, I suspect that Du Plessis is the more tactically flexible and dependable party.

It would be cool for the gym to have another active UFC champion and I will be happy for my guy Nicksick if I’m wrong, I’m just not sure I can trust Strickland to stick to the bodywork the was working so well for him in the early going of their first fight.

A definitive win from Du Plessis wouldn’t shock me, but I’ll officially pick the champ to retain his title by decision.

UFC 312 co-main event: Zhang Weili vs. Tatiana Suarez

Co-main event thoughts:

The co-main event for UFC 312 features a strawweight title fight that’s genuinely compelling from a stylistic standpoint.

Although Tatiana Suarez’s striking has largely been a means to an end on her come-up, the current title challenger has shown solid strides in that department since moving shop to Xtreme Couture MMA and working with coaches like Nate Pettit.

Whereas Zhang, who has quietly shown some grappling holes in previous portions of her career, has made measurable improvements to her wrestling and submission grappling since working with coaches like Josh Hinger and the Hickman brothers at Bang Tao Muay Thai.

However, despite Zhang clearly being the more proven party in five-round affairs, I have a sneaky suspicion that Suarez may have an edge the longer it goes.

Don’t get me wrong: Zhang has shown to hit some strong second winds when she needs to, but “Magnum,” in victory or defeat, also tends to slow down and drop a round or two due to her inherent aggression.

If we get deeper into the middle rounds and Zhang hasn’t seriously hurt or stopped Suarez, then that probably means that the title challenger is forcing her win conditions.

Apart from the Nina Nunes fight (which featured and unhealthy Suarez over half a decade ago), Suarez appears to be one of the grapplers with a near-endless gas tank. And if she is on ‘Team Spectrum’ as her teammate Sean Strickland suggests, then I’m guessing Suarez will have a strength advantage too.

But awful jokes and inside references aside, it was ultimately some Leonardo Di Caprio meme moments in my tape study that ended up swaying things one way for me.

Not only has Zhang’s aggression cost her positions in the past, but she’s also been traditionally punished in the form of kick counters (which was a constant theme for many of her opponent’s big moments opposite her).

Suarez may not present a huge threat in the striking part of the equation, but she does appear to have a solid hardwiring for countering kicks and turning them into takedowns.

I also noticed that Zhang has been a bit hit and miss when it comes to both timing and getting countered with her inside trip attempts. And when watching Suarez footage featuring strong wrestlers and shared competition (a la her fight with Carla Esparza), Suarez was able to show solid counters to those particular takedowns like second nature.

Now, does this insure that Suarez will win the fight?

Of course not.

But it is enough to get me to pick Suarez against one of my favorite fighters, Zhang Weili (don’t hate me PYN faithful!).

I will be playing Zhang to win in Rounds 1 and 2 as a hopeful hedge of sorts, but I’ll also be laying it on Suarez’s money line and sprinkling on her hot rounds: 2, 3 and 4.

Live underdogs I’m looking at:

Quick thoughts:

*UPDATE (2/7/25): I ended up picking Tafa and Topuria but threw Tafa by KO in a round robin. Will also keep an eye out on Thicknesse’s live line.

There’s honestly not a lot of dogs I like at UFC 312 as of now

and not sure how much that’ll change given that I’ve gotten through more than my usual share of tape study at this point of the week. I’ll probably pick Justin Tafa and his southpaw striking over the “tall guy defense” of Tallison Teixeira, but I doubt I’ll have any real money on this fight. I was also looking at Colby Thicknesse given his experience and possible gas tank advantages, but ended up siding with Aleksandre Topuria after watching the tape. Both are BJJ black belts but Topuria’s wrestling and athleticism look to be a notch above, but I don’t blame anyone for getting down with the Thicknesse via a live bet should the Alexander Volkanovski training partner survive Round 1. Outside of that (as you’ll see in the plays section below), it’s mainly favorites on this front.

Locked in picks and plays (so far):

Picks:

• Du Plessis

• Suarez

• Tafa

• Crute

• JAYKE METHEUWS

• Santos

• Borshchev

• Wang

• Topuria

• Steele

• Jousset

• Salkilld

Plays:

• Suarez -120 (2-U)

• Suarez rd 2 +1000, rd 3 +1200, rd 4 +1600 (.33-U each)

• *Zhang rd 1 +900 (.37-U), rd 2 +1100 (.30-U)

• Borshchev -120 (1.20-U), rd 2 +500 (.25-U)

• Borshchev-Nolan U 1.5 rds -110 (1.10-U)

• Parlay: Steele/Santos = +111 (1-U)

• Santos by sub +400 (.25-U)

• Salkilld rd 2 +400, rd 3 +750 (.33-U)

• Round Robin/long-shot parlay: Salkilld rd 2, Borshchev KO, Santos sub, Tafa KO (1.02-U exposure on RR, .10-U exposure on long-shot parlay)

That’s all for now… feel free to check back here for updates throughout the week.