Fluid Thoughts for UFC 322
A look at Dan Tom's picks and plays for the upcoming UFC fight card
Thank you for subscribing and welcome to “Fluid Thoughts.”
Basically, these articles will offer my raw, unpolished thoughts on the upcoming card so that fight nerds and gamblers alike can see where I’m headed in an effort to spark your own thoughts and strategies regarding the festivities to come (to which you’re more then welcome to discuss with me or others in the comments below).
*Just understand that this is a ‘fluid’ article that will be edited throughout the week, so don’t take opinions here straight to the bank and be sure to check back to see my final thoughts – which will be locked in by Friday evening before officially posting picks and plays on Saturday morning.
You can also listen to my thoughts every UFC fight week via the Dog or Pass Podcast, which is recorded and dropped every Wednesday via YouTube and all podcast feeds.
UFC 322 main event: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev
Main event thoughts:
The main event for UFC 322 features a welterweight title fight that will see Islam Makhachev relinquish his lightweight belt in an attempt to grab gold a division up.
Standing in Makhachev’s way is the current welterweight champion, Jack Della Maddalena, who is fresh off a fantastic title-winning effort opposite Belal Muhammad.
MMAJunkie.com should be dropping my in-depth breakdown with clips attached that I strongly suggest you check out if you want the full treatment for this fight, but I’ll do my best to highlight some things here that I didn’t note in the podcast earlier this week.
Although I suspect that Della Maddalena’s defensive stylings will give way to some of the single-leg transitions that Makhachev likes, I noticed that Dustin Poirier was able to successfully utilize similar counter grappling tools to JDM in his fight with Makhachev.
Not only was Poirier able to hit a switch on Della Maddalena, but the American was also able to surprisingly disrupt Makhachev’s base in spots a la foot sweeps (which I didn’t/won’t likely clip as the instances I’m citing come with annoying camera angles and angle changes in tow).
Still, not all will be lost for Della Maddalena in an area that Makhachev traditionally has on lockdown. In fact, I’ll be curious to see if Makhachev is as liberal with his use of collar ties considering Della Maddalena’s hardwiring to immediately punch over and around them.
I would love to see Della Maddalena upset the applecart here, but I find myself siding with the favorite despite Makhachev technically being unproven at this weight class.
As much as I’m a fan of the turtle and octopus guard variations Della Maddalena utilizes, his propensity to play from these positions could get him into serious trouble opposite a submission grappler like Makhachev.
Like I always say, turtling not only allows for back exposure, but it also gives way to front-headlock threats – something that Makhachev specializes in.
I also think that Makhachev’s kicks can have some serious play considering Della Maddalena’s fast-and-loose style of defense (something I’ll further lay out with clips in my official southpaw report over at Home of Fight), but I’ll officially be picking Makhachev to win with his short-armed brabo choke that resembles more of a Japanese necktie than it does a D’arce.
That said, I’ll be keeping an eye on Della Maddalena’s live line should he survive the early scares. Rounds 2, 3 and 4 are live for Makhachev pre-flop, while 3, 4 and 5 is what I would target on the Della Maddalena side as far as “hot rounds” go.
UFC 322 co-main event: Shevchenko vs. Zhang
Co-main event thoughts:
The co-main event in Madison Square Garden features a showdown between the top two pound-for-pound talents in women’s MMA, Valentina Shevchenko and Zhang Weili.
It feels impossible to properly talk about this fight considering the extremely passionate fanbases on both sides of this equation (as I suspect I’ve already pissed off Zhang supporters/former Protect Ya’ Neck Podcast listeners), but this is another fight where I’m proud of both the in-depth breakdown I did over at MMAJunkie.com, as well as the official southpaw report that will be dropping later over at Home of Fight – which both will help outline the points and predictions I make here.
Although I came into this fight leaning toward Zhang, I ended up on the other side after cooling down my biases and properly looking into the tape.
And what surprised me most?
Well, it was Zhang’s win over Tatiana Suarez.
Despite the win being dominant overall, I forgot about the early success Suarez had prior to falling apart after tearing her knee wide open in Round 2.
Moreover, I noticed that Zhang didn’t have the same organic flow as she seemed to be limited to a more pared down arsenal in what was essentially her first open-stance matchup at the UFC level.
Like a lot of orthodox fighters in MMA do when facing a southpaw, Zhang’s lead hand – despite it’s best efforts to feint and put on a show for setups – was not as committed or effective as she almost jabbed as much with her sidekicks as she did with her fists.
And when Zhang did commit to lancing 1-2’s, her suspect distance management and inherent aggression showed themselves in the form of overthrown punches that put her out of position.
Zhang was both athletically sound enough and ahead enough to successfully recover from said spots after the first frame against Suarez, but those scenarios could be costly against a larger and more positionally sound party like Shevchenko (who can actually strike and counter in more ways than one).
In fact, when you go back and look at past strawweight champions who came in hot against Shevchenko, the reigning flyweight champ was able to ground them early and often.
The clinch encounters will tell the story of this fight, but should Shevchenko win them out early – then it could be a long night for Zhang.
I’m officially picking Shevchenko to win by decision, but I will be keeping an eye on Zhang’s live line from a betting perspective depending on how the fight plays out.
Live underdogs I’m looking at:
Quick thoughts:
Although there’s a ton of live dogs and underdog arguments to be had at UFC 322, there’s not a ton of them that I officially picked. That said, I’ll (as usual) do my best to outline some of live ones here, regardess of whether or not I’m picking or playing them.
One dog that I am both picking and playing, however, is Rodolfo Vieira.
Although you could fairly accuse of my bringing some confirmation bias to the table as one of the few public analysts to successfully fade Bo Nickal before it was cool, it’s genuinely hard to tell where Nickal is at and how he’ll recover from a somewhat embarrassing ass-kicking last time out.
If Nickal does fight up to his potential, then I could see a world where he’s able to out-pace and wear down Vieira with wrestling and superior optics down the stretch. But without the proof that Nickal can grapple with a high-level submission threat like Vieira, I find it hard to trust the American in this spot.
Aside form having an uninspiring striking game against competition with some semblance of a pulse, Nickal has apparently spent less time at American Top Team since his last fight (focusing on his family back in Pennsylvania). Regardless of who wins, I have hard time seeing Nickal finsih Vieira, so I fired on both Vieira and his points handicap. I may also throw Vieira by submission into my round robin – which will be submission heavy.
Another dog I like is Beneil Dariush, but I’m not in a rush to play him pre-flop.
Even though you can still get decent dog money on Dariush, there’s no denying the trouble his chin can get him into early on into fights.
Benoit Saint-Denis might not be the cleanest striker, but the Frenchman throws with an undeniable ferocity that could spell trouble for Dariush. That said, I believe that Dariush is the more skilled fighter in practically every area of this fight.
Should Dariush survive the early storm, then I’ll be looking to fire on his live line by the end of Round 1 and will probably throw some kind of finish prop into the round robin.
Although I leaned toward Gerald Meerschaert on this week’s show, I ended up switching my pick to Kyle “Dukakis” Daukaus after coming to my senses and putting my big GM3 bias aside.
Don’t get me wrong: It’s dog or pass from a money line perspective.
However, as a defender of Meerschaert’s game and record against fellow southpaws alike, it’s still difficult to deny that Daukaus looks to be catching my guy at the right time. Touch this fight at your own risk.
In a fight that should be awesome but I still hate the booking, Chepe Mariscal – by nature of the line flip and his scrappy sensibilities – finds himself as one of the more eye-catching underdogs despite the short plus-money price tag attached.
I’m officially picking Pat Sabatini (who technically opened as the underdog), but I totally get people taking a shot on Mariscal here. Finishes are on the table for both sides, but we could be in for another heart-breaking split if these two go to cards like they did in their first go around.
I may put Sabatini by submission in the round robin, but will most likely stay away otherwise.
Despite picking Carlos Prates for reasons I highlight both on this week’s podcast and my southpaw report, I can’t hate anyone for taking a shot on a former champion and talent like Leon Edwards at plus money.
Although Edwards has been dropped or stunned opposite southpaws, the Englishman technically stands positive opposite UFC-level lefties at 5-1. That said, tread carefully regardless of what side you take here – as this feels like a trap fight from both ends.
Southpaw stats for UFC 322:
Jack Della Maddalena, who faces Islam Makhachev at UFC 322, is officially 1-0 opposite UFC-level southpaws (Win: Danny Roberts), but has seen the stance in the octagon before opposite stance-switchers Pete Rodriguez and Bassil Hafez.
Islam Makhachev, who faces a sometimes-southpaw primary stance-switcher in Jack Della Maddalena, is officially 3-1 opposite listed southpaws in the octagon (Wins: Dustin Poirier, Drew Dober, Gleison Tibau; Loss: Adriano Martins).
Zhang Weili, who faces Valentina Shevchenko at UFC 322, is officially 2-0 opposite UFC-level southpaws (Wins: Tatiana Suarez, Amanda Lemos).
Leon Edwards, who faces fellow southpaw Carlos Prates, is officially 5-1 opposite other UFC-level lefties (Wins: Bryan Barberena, Peter Sobotta, Rafael dos Anjos, Nate Diaz, Colby Covington; Losses: Claudio Silva).
Carlos Prates, who faces fellow southpaw Leon Edwards, is officially 1-0 opposite UFC-level southpaws (beating Geoff Neal).
Beneil Dariush, who faces fellow southpaw Benoit Saint-Denis, is officially 3-1-1 opposite UFC-level lefties (Wins: Drew Dober, Jim Miller, *Michael Johnson; Losses: Michael Chiesa; Draw: Evan Dunham).
Benoit Saint-Denis, who faces fellow southpaw Beneil Dariush, is officially 1-1 opposite UFC-level lefties (Wins: Kyle Prepolec; Losses: Dustin Poirier).
Rodolfo Vieira, who faces Bo Nickal, is officially 0-1 opposite UFC-level lefties (losing to Chris Curtis), but also fought a stance-switcher in Andre Petroski.
Gregory Rodrigues (HOBOCOP), is officially 0-1 opposite UFC-level southpaws (losing to Jordan Williams on Dana White’s Contender Series).
Gerald Meerschaert, who faces fellow southpaw Kyle Daukaus, is 2-5 against UFC-level lefties (Wins: Sam Alvey, Bryan Barberena; Losses: Sam Alvey, Michal Oleksiejczuk, Reinier de Ridder, Krzysztof Jotko, *Eryk Anders).
Kyle Daukaus, who faces fellow southpaw Gerald Meerschaert, is officially 1-1 opposite UFC-level lefties (Wins: Jamie Pickett; Losses: Eryk Anders).
Baisangur Susurkaev, who faces Eric McConico, is officially 0-0 opposite UFC-level southpaws.
Locked in picks and plays (so far):
Picks:
Makhachev
Shevchenko
Brady
Prates
Dariush
Vieira
HOBOCOP
Blanchfield
Wellmaker
Dukakis
Sabatini
Kline
Susurkaev
Camilo
Plays:
Susurkaev-McConjugal U 1.5/Hill-Kline 0 2.5/Blanchfield +161 (1.07-U)
Prates -163 (1.63-U)
Brady -135 (1.35-U)
Vieira +200 (1-U)
Vieira 3.5 pts -155 (1.55-U)
Cycle parlay: Blanchfield dec, Prates KO, Brady sub +1983 (.2-U)
Round Robin/long-shot parlay: HOBOCOP sub +425, Dariush-BSD ends rd 2 +275, Prates KO +150, Brady-Morales ends rd 2 +400, Makhachev-JDM ends rd 2 +500 (.17-U exposure for each 2-leg round robin play for 1.7-U exposure pluse .01-U exposure on long-shot parlay)
*BETTING NOTES: Since the official round robin is full of cheeky legs like “fight ends in round 2,” the unofficial/alternative round robin will consist of simpler legs. Instead of Brady-Morales ends in round 2, I may just throw down on some Brady by sub. It can get tricky trying to choose between Dariush by KO or by sub (much less taking Dariush at all), so I’ll probably leave that alone and instead look at something like Sabatini or Vieira by sub or Meerschaert’s money line for the value. I can also pick a side on the “hot round” of round 2 in the main event, as I’d probably lean toward JDM since he has better No.’s and I planned on playing his other rounds of 3, 4 and 5 straight up (especially if I’m up at that point of the card). JDM, Dariush and Zhang will also all be live betting targets for me.