Fluid Thoughts for UFC 325

A look at Dan Tom's picks and plays for the upcoming UFC fight card

Thank you for subscribing and welcome to “Fluid Thoughts.”

Basically, these articles will offer my raw, unpolished thoughts on the upcoming card so that fight nerds and gamblers alike can see where I’m headed in an effort to spark your own thoughts and strategies regarding the festivities to come (to which you’re more then welcome to discuss with me or others in the comments below).

*Just understand that this is a ‘fluid’ article that will be edited throughout the week, so don’t take opinions here straight to the bank and be sure to check back to see my final thoughts – which will be locked in by Friday evening before officially posting picks and plays on Saturday morning.

You can also listen to my thoughts every UFC fight week via the Dog or Pass Podcast, which is recorded and dropped every Wednesday via YouTube and all podcast feeds.

UFC 325 main event: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2

Main even thoughts:

OMG ITS ANOTHER REMATCH LIKE WE NEVER GET THESE!!!!!!!!

[lets out deep sigh]

In the latest installment of ‘rematches nobody asked for,’ the world’s leader is feeding us another one in the form of Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopes 2.

Akin to fighters like Deiveson Figueiredo, it’s annoying to see top pound-for-pound champions being forced to waste what’s left of their post-prime on rematches that don’t need to happen.

Yes, this fight has all the makings to, once again, be an entertaining contest from start to finish. But if this fight is entertaining, it will likely (and unjustifiably) provide confirmation bias for the UFC matchmakers’ weird fetish when it comes to booking rematches.

And if Lopes is able to win this time around, it will not justify him getting a second chance over Movsar Evloev and Lerone Murphy’s first and rightful chance at the belt.

Don’t get me wrong: Lopes is an incredibly fun fighter and seems like a great dude, so he deserves none of the blame while also deserving all the credit in the world if he can pull this off.

However, despite me being the one to always say that ‘seldom do rematches play out the same way in MMA,’ I have a hard time seeing this fight go much different than their first fight (sans that fact that I think Volkanovski will go back to his strong ground attacks to try and force a stoppage via strikes).

Forgive me for not going deep into the nitty gritty technical details, but – aside from my unbridled hatred for having to write-up rematches – I’ve already went in-depth writing about this fight via MMAJunkie and talked about it in detail on two different podcasts (both of which could use your views and and listens).

I’ll consider adding Unders or Volk round fliers if hell freezes over and I’m actually up by the main event, otherwise this is buy-low on Volk in this spot as I feel like Lopes backers aren’t getting enough meat on the bone.

That said, if you like Lopes, then maybe wait just a little longer for a better number as I expect there to be buy-back from the Volk side.

UFC 325 co-main event: Prostituta vs. Saint-Denis

Co-main event thoughts:

No disrespect to Dan Hooker, but Italian AI directly translating his last name has made for an organic nickname that I could see Furio from “The Sopranos” calling Hooker all episode.

But don’t let my jokes or official pick fool you, Dan Prostituta is absolutely live in this spot.

Forgive me for using similar languages and speaking out of both sides of my mouth like I did last week with my Gaethje-Pimblett breakdown, but BSD is another fighter whom I’ve recently faded a lot to absolutely no avail.

So, for that reason as well as other legitimate reasons (like looking great on the scales with a shorter, less damaging turnaround), I will officially be picking Saint-Denis to get a second round submission.

However, if Saint-Denis fails deal out heavy damage or find a finish in the first 8 minutes of this fight, then I suspect that Hooker will be waiting in the wings to take over this contest. If you like Hooker, then maybe wait and try to bet him live (though be mindful of the extra delays via Paramount+).

I’ll probably throw Hooker in my round robin.

Live underdogs I’m looking at:

Quick thoughts:

There’s a ton of live dogs on this card, but my favorite is Rafael Fiziev.

It’s not a sexy underdog price by any means, but Fiziev arguably shouldn’t have a plus sign next to his name at all ahead of this fight.

Aside from arguably beating Justin Gaethje the last time out (and arguably drawing with him in their first fight), Fiziev is highly-skilled striker who consistently mixes up his targets.

Mauricio Ruffy may be able to match the savvy defensive lean backs that Fiziev likes to do, but the Brazilian operates out of a wider stance than his counterpart, which could, in theory, open his legs and body a lot more as a target.

And given that Ruffy is facing one of the most consistent bodyworkers and leg kickers in the division, I believe that Fiziev will have the edge both on the feet and the floor of this fight.

Another underdog that’s live this week is Tai Tuivasa.

Some may have chuckled to see him mentioned here (as kicking fighters when they’re down is always in fashion in this space), but let's not forget we’re talking about heavyweight MMA here, folks.

Like, if the oddsmakers are gonna set a favorite anywhere north of -250 in a heavyweight fight, you have to squint at that real hard out of principal – especially when said heavyweight only has a sample size of collectively half a round inside the octagon.

I’m sure Tallison Teixeira will continue to improve, but – aside from being an unproven one round fighter – I don’t like that he trains at a camp that lacks heavyweight bodies. This is why took a flier for Derrick Lewis to beat him.

Tuivasa, on the other hand, is finally back to training in Dubai with the high-level team and training partners who were behind him on the Western Australian’s last successful run.

You need good reason to be a big favorite in heavyweight, but, conversely, you don’t need a good reason to back a big dog in the same division.

The pick is Tuivasa and I’ll probably throw him in my round robin since I’m not rushing to have any huge exposure on a fight like this.

Although I’m not interested in betting Road To UFC fights due to the lack of UFC sample sizes, there are a couple live dogs in said bouts at the bottom of the card.

Firstly, I suspect that Sang Uk Kim and his heavy hands will be live opposite Don Mar’s biggest fan, Don Mar Fan.

Fan is an intelligent grappler who looks to tie his opponents up, but this bout will be in the larger octagon opposite a very large fighter for the weight class. It could get sketchy down the stretch, but I’ll semi-reluctantly side with Kim’s power and well-rounded skills.

Secondly, I gotta go with Keiichiro Nakamura, who was a runner-up for my prospects column this year.

Although Conor McGregor clones don’t tend to work out in the UFC, its hard not to see Nakamura’s striking standout for his region regarding MMA. Nakamura also trains under longtime UFC-veteran Yushin Okami, showing a serviceable clinch game in closed quarters.

Nakamura will be facing a savvy and well-rounded fighter in Sebastian Szalay, but I’ll be officially siding with the superior size and skills of Nakamura.

Southpaw stats for UFC 325:

• Dan Hooker, who faces Benoit Saint-Denis, is officially 4-3 opposite UFC-level southpaws (Wins: Jim Miller, Nasrat Haqparast, Claudio Puelles, Jailin Turner; Losses: Dustin Poirier, Islam Makhachev, Arnold Allen).

• Oban Elliott, who faces Jonathan Micallef, is officially 0-1 opposite UFC-level southpaws (losing to Seok Hyeon Ko).

• Sebastian Szalay, who faces Keiichiro Nakumura, is officially 0-0 opposite UFC-level southpaws.

• Lawrence Lui, who faces Sulangrangbo, is officially 0-0 opposite UFC-level southpaws.

Locked in picks and plays (so far):

Picks:

• Volkanovski

• BSD

• Fiziev

• Tuivasa

• Salkilld

• Elekana

• Rowston

• Malkoun

• Micallef

• Yizha

• Kim

• Nakamura

• Sulangrangbo

Plays:

• Volkanovski points/KO -130 (2-U)

• Malkoun -135 (1.35-U), rd 3 +1600 (.17-U)

• Fiziev +105 (1-U)

• Hooker-BSD ends rd 2 +280 (.5-U)

• YZA rd 1 +650 (.33-U), rd 2 +1000 (.25-U)

• Parlay: Rowston/YZA/Malkoun-Finney O 2.5 = +197 (1.02-U)

• Cycle No. 1: Tuivasa KO/Fiziev dec/BSD sub = +4540 (.2-U)

• Cycle No. 2: YZA KO/Micallef dec/BSD-Hooker ends by sub = +6087 (.2-U)

• Round Robin/long-shot parlay: YZA KO +900, Malkoun-Finney ends by KO +250, Tuivasa KO +350, Hooker +275, Volkanovski rd 3 +1600 (.17-U exposure for each 2-leg round robin combo play for 1.7-U exposure total plus .01-U exposure on long-shot parlay at +1003962)

*BETTING NOTES: As far as my official round robin goes, I couldn’t help but throw YZA by KO for the value since Ofli is awfully bad about running into the pocket head-first. And though Malkoun-Finney seems like a wild leg for a mild price, it’s more so in the mix to cover the Over 2.5 rds leg in my parlay in case Malkoun or god forbid Finney can force a strikes stoppage of some sort. I explained the logic in my Tuivasa and Hooker shots above, but I did admittedly get greedy by throwing the big number prop of Volkanovski rd 3 as opposed to just playing Volk by KO for a fraction of the odds, but I love me a hot round shot. For houses that don’t offer ends by KO props, I’ll probably sub in Malkoun rd 3 in it’s stead. Good luck regardless of what you end up on.