Fluid Thoughts for UFC 327

A look at Dan Tom's picks and plays for the upcoming UFC fight card

Thank you for subscribing and welcome to “Fluid Thoughts.”

Basically, these articles will offer my raw, unpolished thoughts on the upcoming card so that fight nerds and gamblers alike can see where I’m headed in an effort to spark your own thoughts and strategies regarding the festivities to come (to which you’re more then welcome to discuss with me or others in the comments below).

*Just understand that this is a ‘fluid’ article that will be edited throughout the week, so don’t take opinions here straight to the bank and be sure to check back to see my final thoughts – which will be locked in by Friday evening before officially posting picks and plays on Saturday morning.

In case you’re missing me doing regular podcasts or you just prefer audio/video mediums, I broke down the entire card with old friend Feno on The Fight Site Presents Youtube channel, which you can view below:

UFC 327 main event: Jiri Prochazka vs. Carlos Ulberg

Main event thoughts:

The main event in Miami features a vacant title fight at light heavyweight between former champ Jiri Prochazka and Carlos Ulberg.

Although it’s hard to ignore Alex Pereira’s shadow looming over the division, this should be a fun fight for as long as it lasts.

I wrote about this fight more in depth in my breakdown over at MMAJunkie.com for those interested in a deeper dive, but the basic dynamic of this fight is a fairly clear one: Will Prochazka’s pressure prevail against Ulberg? Or will Prochazka’s pressure get him pummeled coming in?

Although I see Prochazka’s new-found tactic of launching southpaw crosses off slips having success against Ulberg (as even Fabio Cherant was able to land those with regularity), I still find it difficult to ignore the self-proclaimed samurai’s defensive holes.

As I’ve stated in previous Prochazka breakdowns, he eats his fair share of left-sided strikes due to his propensity to heavily dip and crouch from an orthodox stance. This is why I have traditionally picked southpaws or fighters with heavy left hooks like Alex Pereira to beat him in the past.

Not only has Ulberg spent a decent amount of his career imitating “Poatan” Pereira for Israel Adesanya, but Ulberg also has an underrated ground game that could rear it’s head if Prochazka comes in too hot.

Left-sided strikes are a potent two-way street, but I’ll semi-reluctantly side with Ulberg to land a devastating counter by the end of Round 2. But between the volatility of this fight and the fact that I kinda would love to see Prochazka win, I’ll likely be staying completely away from a betting perspective.

That said, if you like Prochazka, I’d probably look at his hot rounds of 2, 3, 4 pre-flop and keep an eye on his live line if this fight makes it past the halfway point of Round 1.

UFC 327 co-main event: Murzakanov vs. Costa

Co-main event thoughts:

With Joshua Van vs. Tatsuro Taira falling off this card, the impromptu co-main event for UFC 327 will instead be a light heavyweight showdown between Azamat Murzakanov and Paulo Costa.

I’ve been fairly accurate calling Costa’s fights for the past few years, and I cashed nicely on his money line, points handicap and decision prop in his last outing opposite Roman Kopylov. However, despite that tidbit or the fact that Costa is officially 6-1 opposite UFC-level southpaws, I still find myself taking a strong stance on the other side.

I’m happy to announce that I’m back with the Action Network and wrote a more in-depth breakdown there for those interested (as well as go in-depth with my guy Feno in the audio podcast linked above). But as far as why I’m bullish on Murzakanov, well—he basically has been a money train for those backing him.

More importantly, Murzkanov is an incredibly well-schooled southpaw who will be bringing power, speed and savvy that Costa has yet to see in any of his previous southpaw samples.

Murzakanov may not have an insane output from a statistical perspective and can sometimes offer suspect optics as far as his stamina goes, but Costa’s more conservative pacing and lack of his patent pressuring game will likely keep the Russian in comfortable fencing fighting conditions.

Add in the fact that Costa is openly saying that pressuring is the wrong thing to do to Murzakanov, and I can’t help but be even more confident in pulling what is ultimately a chalky trigger.

Between still waiting/getting stiffed on other parlay options to the fact that I always put my money where my mouth is on the public plays in my write-ups, I probably have too much exposure on this fight. But with the current prices in conjunction with the stylistic battle at play, it’s a pick a side and ride from a betting perspective.

Live underdogs I’m looking at:

Quick thoughts:

In a card full of live underdogs, MarQel Mederos is somewhat surprisingly one of the dogs I feel best about.

I definitely don’t mean to discount Chris Padilla (who I cashed on nicely last time out), but I believe that a consistent bodyworker and leg kicker who takes angles like Mederos could be stylistic kryptonite for the heavy-footed, high-guard approach of Padilla.

Padilla is an opportunist who can make Mederos pay for his sometimes-lackadaisical transitions off the breaks and in scrambles, but “Taco” isn’t exactly the type to repeatedly force said situations. For that reason, I suspect that Mederos will be able to pile points and attritional damage in a competitive fight that will likely be decided by Mederos’ minutes vs. Padilla’s potentially big moments.

I’ve been able to escape my usual bad beats in these scenarios as of late, but I’ll still be looking to throw my usual split-decision insurance in the form of round robin legs once lines finally drop at my preferred house.

Next up as far as underdogs to make my slate goes is Esteban Ribovics.

Although I suggested waiting for live bet opportunities on Rivobics after Gamrot likely gets a takedown in round 1, there’s never a guarantee that you’ll get good numbers or opps to play for a plethora of reasons. And between me having plans during the day to the fact that Ribovics’ money line got up to +165, I felt compelled to fire a shot pre-flop (as it also balances out my betting structure for straight plays given that I’m now on 2 dogs and 2 favorites).

I’m still a believer that Ribovics is destined to cash some round 3 props so I played it straight up and will be looking to repeat the success I had last week when I put Ethan Ewing rd 3 in a round robin that paid out BIG (though, if we’re being honest, I should probably be using another split decision prop here as potential insurance).

Although it’s far from a popular pick, I officially went with Josh Hokit to upset Curtis Blaydes.

Despite being a big fan of Blaydes and hoping he wins, I have to be honest as an analyst and do my best to ignore biases and outside of the octagon noise that doesn’t serve me or my process. And when doing that, well… I can’t deny that I’ve had high hopes for Hokit’s skill set since covering live on the regional scene at a local LFA show.

More specifically, I supsect that Hokit’s speed, athleticism and wrestling/scrambling ability will allow him to pull ahead of the more proven and powerful product in Blaydes.

I hate both the betting lines and the fact that they even made this fight, but one of my favorite bets on this card is the fight ending by KO (which I was able to find as low as -135 at places like Boyd Gaming). I’ll also be targeting “fight ends in round 2” as a round robin leg.

Even though I officially copped out and once again picked Aaron Pico as a moderate favorite, there’s no denying that Patricio “Pitbull” Freire isn’t a live underdog from a betting perspective.

Sure, Freire may be deep into the winter of his career at 38 years of age, but the Brazilian still packs the powerful counters that have traditionally been kryptonite for Pico and his suspect staying power. It’s a dog or pass spot, as Freire/Freire inside the distance could be alternate round robin legs.

Southpaw stats for UFC 326:

• Paulo Costa, who faces Azamat Murzakanov, is officially 6-1 opposite UFC-level southpaws (Wins: Garreth McClellan, Oluwale Bamgbose, Yoel Romero, Johny Hendricks, Luke Rockhold, Roman Kopylov; Losses: Marvin Vettori).

• Johnny Walker, who faces Dominick Reyes, is officially 2-4-1 opposite UFC-level southpaws (Wins: Khalil Rountree Jr., Misha Cirkunov; Losses: Wagner Prado, Klidson Abreu, Jamahal Hill, Magomed Ankalaev; No Contest: Magomed Ankalaev).

• Lupita Godinez, who faces Tatiana Suarez, is officially 0-0 opposite UFC-level southpaws (but did lose to Luana Carolina, who is a orthodox fighter who primarily fought Godinez as a southpaw).

• Vicente Luque, who faces Kelvin Gastelum, is officially 4-3 opposite UFC-level lefties (Wins: Jailin Turner, Bryan Barberena, Michael Chiesa, Rafael dos Anjos; Losses: Leon Edwards, Geoff Neal, Joaquin Buckley).

Locked in picks and plays (so far):

Picks:

• Ulberg

• Murzakanov

• Hokit

• Reyes

• Swanson

• Pico

• Brown

• Ribovics

• Suarez

• Mederos

• Gastelum

• Radtke

Plays:

• Parlay No. 1: Mederos-Taco O 2.5, Murzakanov = +121 (1.5-U)

• Parlay No. 2: Gastelum, Walker-Reyes DGTD, Jiri-Ulberg DGTD = +100 (1.5-U)

• Action Network play: Murzakanov pts/KO -185 (1.85-U)

• Mederos +155 (1-U)

• Suarez -150 (1.5-U)

• Brown -125 (1.5-U)

• Ribovics +165 (1-U), rd 3 +1600 (.17-U)

• Gastelum rd 1, 2 +220 (.5-U)

• Murzakanov rd 2 +800 (.25-U)

• Blaydes-Hokit ends by KO -135 (1.5-U)

• Brown-Holland pt deduction +2000 (.1-U)

• Cycle/Trixie round robin: Mederos dec, Holland-Brown ends sub, Pitbull-Pico ends KO = +2242 (.17-U exposure on parlay and 2-legger combos at .68-U total exposure)

• Round robin No. 1: Mederos +135, Suarez -150, Hokit +115 (.17-U exposure for each 2-leg round robin combo play for .51-U total exposure)

• Round Robin No. 2/long-shot parlay: Mederos-Padilla split +550, Gamrot-Ribovics split +325, Holland-Brown ends by sub +300, Swanson KO +275, Blaydes-Hokit ends rd 2 +300 (.17-U exposure for each 2-leg round robin combo play for 1.7-U exposure total plus .01-U exposure on long-shot parlay at +165650)

BETTING NOTES: *EDIT (4/10): I ended up taking Swanson by KO and the split prop options in my official round robin but will definitely be using sexier lines like Ribovics rd 3, Brown sub and Murzakanov rd 2 in my alternate round robin as the sportsbook I frequent here in Vegas doesn’t allow for cheeky props like split decisions anyway. I also steered away from further Murzakanov/Mederos-Padilla exposure with the parlay and Gastelum play I added. Good luck with whatever you end up on!

I'm still waiting for totals and props for the Mederos-Padilla fight to drop in the house that allows me prop parlays and round robins, as I’m eyeing that fight to end by split as a round robin leg. I also was curious what Mederos-Padilla O 2.5 looks like when paired up with Gastelum ML and Prochazka-Ulberg not going the distance in the secondary parlay. As far as other round robin legs go, I’ll be looking at Ribovics split prop/Ribovics rd 3, Brown by sub/Brown-Holland ends by sub, Hokit-Blaydes ends rd 2 and Murzakanov rd 2 or decision. Pitbull/Pitbull inside the distance also has value, and so does Swanson KO if you’re looking for legs in the +275 neighborhood.