Fluid Thoughts for UFC 328
A look at Dan Tom's picks and plays for the upcoming UFC fight card
Thank you for subscribing and welcome to “Fluid Thoughts.”
Basically, these articles will offer my raw, unpolished thoughts on the upcoming card so that fight nerds and gamblers alike can see where I’m headed in an effort to spark your own thoughts and strategies regarding the festivities to come (to which you’re more then welcome to discuss with me or others in the comments below).
*Just understand that this is a ‘fluid’ article that will be edited throughout the week, so don’t take opinions here straight to the bank and be sure to check back to see my final thoughts – which will be locked in by Friday evening before officially posting picks and plays on Saturday morning.
UFC 328 main event: Chimaev vs. Strickland
Main event thoughts:
The main event in New Jersey features a middleweight title fight between Khamzat Chimaev and Sean Strickland.
As usual, I highly suggest you check out the in-depth breakdowns I do over at MMAJunkie.com if you want more full-throated analysis for title fights and headliners alike.
But to my readers here (whom I greatly appreciate), I’ll do my best to keep things tight while still informative. As for this fight between Chimaev and Strickland, well… it could be trickier than meets the eye.
Aside from the usual analysis regarding ‘surviving Chimaev’s early storms,’ I suspect that the “bad blood” dynamic, coupled with the fact Chimaev has proven to be able to go five frames, makes forecasting totals for this fight difficult.
As we tend to see with ‘bad blood affairs,’ they tend to get stuck in tension mode more than often than not. And though Strickland has the stamina edge on paper, I’m not sure he’s a potent enough finisher to get enough done in whatever small windows Chimaev’s style affords him (lest we also not forget: Chimaev has been working with some of the most ‘notorious’ strength and conditioning teams in the game a la T.J. Dillashaw’s old Treigning Lab).
For me, this outcome ultimately comes down to how well Strickland can deal with Chimaev’s relentless spin cycle.
As seen and explained in the attached tweet above, Chimaev has one of the most reliable processes in MMA we’ve seen since Khabib Nurmagomedov (I know, I hate making that comparison too).
From what I’ve seen and otherwise gathered over the years, I can stand by the overly-used statement that Strickland’s grappling is underrated. However, despite Strickland having a solid awareness of hips and head position alike, he’s traditionally been ok with giving back exposure on getups given his confidence in scrambling and creating separations.
The potential problem, though, is that Chimaev is probably the last fighter on the UFC’s roster who you want to let in on any sort of rear-waist cinch (again, see the clip above).
For that reason, I’ll semi-reluctantly pick Chimaev to win a decision in a fight that I suspect is more competitive than most imagine.
Part of me will be rooting for my guy Eric Nicksick and the rest of the Xtreme Couture crew to help guide MMA’s Travis Bickle-Jack Burton amalgamation to a win, but I, of course, will once again put my bias aside (something that burns me more often than not, by the way).
UFC 328 co-main event: Joshua Van vs. Tatsuro Taira
Co-main event thoughts:
The co-main event in Newark features a flyweight title fight between Joshua Van and Tatsuro Taira.
Although it was very difficult to see Van take the title from Alexandre Pantoja in such ignominious fashion late last year, there’s no denying the skills that Van brings to the table.
As I break down further in both my in-depth technical breakdown over at MMAJunkie.com, as well as my betting breakdown over at Action Network (that I, again, highly encourage you to check out and share), Van is one of the most exciting action-fighting strikers in the sport today.
From consistent counters in combination to brutal body shots, Van’s style is appealing to hipster-ass hardcores and casuals alike.
Van also has good first-layer takedown defense and solid scrambling instincts to boot. That said, Van’s getup style can allow for some back exposure – which is the last thing you want to give up opposite someone like Taira.
Pantoja may still be a level above the division with his body of work in the back-take department, but Taira isn’t exactly super far behind. Taira’s defense in the pocket has been something I’ve critiqued before and is a place he definitely doesn’t want to get stuck in with a boxer like Van.
However, Taira does have a good feel for distance and has been steadily improving everything from his jab to stance fundamentals. Taira also has a knack for hitting counter crosses and switch kicks alike – two things that could be quietly potent opposite Van’s more wrestle-boxing archetype.
Lest we not forget, Van has been stunned or dropped in roughly half of his UFC fights thus far, as he’s not exactly impervious from a defensive standpoint either.
To Van’s credit, he hasn’t show any serious drop-offs in output opposite the few grapplers he’s faced. But I cringe at folks saying that Van has already proven himself in the grappling department due to passing by unproven prospects like Rei Tsuruya, who have a completey different and unique (though not necessarily effective or efficient) style of wrestling and grappling.
And none of this is to even mention the fact that Van still hasn’t even been fighting for five years yet as a pro. I know Taira isn’t much more experienced on paper, but the Japanese challenger’s path has made much more sense in my eyes.
Still, I supsect that Van’s style of output, counters and adjustments will make him the more potent party down the stretch – should the fight go long.
Despite betting on this bout, I wouldn’t dare discount either man in this equation, nor act like one of them is some sort of sure thing. But at the end of the day, I will be siding with the back-taking side of this equation (which is also the side that didn’t have to postpone the original fight date due to injury) in Taira.
I know Taira hasn’t proven to be on Pantoja’s level yet, but I still have to see Van against someone who can truly tax his scramble style and sometimes suspect decision making.
I targeted Taira’s “hot round” of Round 2 in my round robin, and will put some of his submission exposure in my Trixie Cycle. But the main play is on the money line due to the multiple pathways Taira can win on paper.
UFC 328 feature: Sean Brady vs. Joaquin Buckley
Quick thoughts:
So, I realized that this format I have on here doesn’t allow me to pontificate on favorite plays I make. I guess it’s because I’m so used to having a weekly podcast to cover everything and then some, but without that I realize that I’m leaving a hole here.
And though Sean Brady vs. Joaquin Buckley is a fight that would be covered a la my quick picks via MMAJunkie.com, those articles are only 5-7 sentences worth of analysis and don’t drop until fight day.
I also was lucky enough to have the opportunity to write about this fight a bit more in-depth over at Action Network, so I suggest checking out that link below for more analysis, stats and clips like the one linked above.
Sean Brady vs. Joaquin Buckely breakdown link
Basically, I believe that this is a bad style matchup for Buckley.
There’s a lot of talk about him training with Kamaru Usman, but Buckley was barely at Kill Cliff FC for 3 weeks this camp. I’ve been wrong about Buckley before, but the man is 32-years-old and has been fighting for 13 years – – I’m pretty sure he is who he is at this point (respectfully).
This is one of my more confident reads on the card so I hope you check my article linked above if you’re curious as to why. Let’s go, Fiwwee.
Live underdogs I’m looking at:
Quick thoughts:
Affectionately referred to as “The Balding Bowling Ball,” Mateus Rebecki is always reliable for fun collisions.
And though Rebecki isn’t as reliable when it comes to winning, the Polish southpaw does offer some strong stylistic spoilers that could have play opposite Grant Dawson.
Grant Dawson’s Southpaw Report:
As seen in the clip attached above, both of Dawson’s knockout losses come opposite stance-switchers who fired lefts from southpaw. And if there is one thing you can count on Rebecki doing, it’s launching left hands from his Grandmother’s house.
Although I initially came into this fighting leaning and looking in Dawson’s direction, this tell feels like one of those classic “Once Upon A Time In Hollywood” memes where I’ll end up kicking myself if I ignore it and am proven right.
Rebecki is also an accoladed grappler both in and out of the gi, and – at least according to my guy Matty Betss – Dawson has admitted to not being able to submit Rebecki in the gym (as they both have trained at American Top Team).
However, with Rebecki’s propensity to wear damage worst than a boxer from the “Legends of the Ring” video game from the early 90s, I also believe that Dawson’s ground-and-pound will be live for a possible finish outcome as well. For that reason, I opted to take a shot on this fight not going the distance as opposed to a flier on the underdog.
Although I’m officially picking Bobby Green, I was this close to taking a flier on Jeremy Stephens.
The UFC’s junkyard dog who finally learned how to work his own chain, Stephens has always been down for scrap. However, with “Lil Heathen’ debuting all the way back when Chuck Liddell was still champion, it’s hard to know how much he has left at this point of his career (especially after that war he had with Mike Perry over in BKFC).
Nevertheless, I obviously like that Stephens changed up training scenery by working with Eric Nicksick and company here in my backyard of Xtreme Couture MMA. I’ll be happy for Stephens if he wins and believe that he can do so by knockout (as the only action I got on this fight is a Trixie Cycle leg for this fight to end by KO).
Speaking of biases, there is one bias I can’t seem to steer away from – and that’s Jim Fucking Miller.
One of my favorite all-time fighters and favorite MMA lightweight, Miller has been the highlight of the card for me for almost two decades now. In fact, I’m not sure there’s a walkout I get hyped up for more than some “Bad Moon Rising.”
That said, I’m also a huge Jared Gordon fan given the things he represents and the insane bad luck that always seems to befall him (something ole Dan Tom here can obviously relate to if you know anything about me). But I digress.
Gordon is ultimately the desreved favorite in this spot since he fits a lot of the bill of fighters who have troubled Miller in the past as far as his top game and boxing abilities go. However, I’m not sure Gordon can get too takedown happy given the looming Guillotine threats of Miller.
And though Gordon should be 2-0 opposite UFC-level southpaws if the judges properly adjudicated his fight with Nasrat Haqparast, “Haq,” to his credit, was able to fairly consistently catch Gordon with counter hooks and crosses (which was a trend that dates back to Gordon’s fight with southpaw Dan Moret).
I know I always cape for Miller’s striking ability, but the New Jersey native truly does have solid counter hooks and crosses that he regularly goes to. Miller is also quite accustom to fighting as an old man, whereas Gordon, who is nearly 38-years-old, has only recently adopted the dynamic of fighting into the latter stages of your career.
So yeah, outside of my clear and stated biases, there are also reasons for my Miller pick.
I actually think the money line should be wider in Gordon’s favor, so I ended up staying way from any straight plays on Miller-san. I did, however, throw his finish props in my round robin.
Lastly but not leastly is Roman Kopylov.
Despite Kopylov being a fighter that I seem to have a love-hate relationship with as far as picking him goes, I do believe that the Russian could have some quiet upside in this matchup.
Aside from the (small, granted) improvements that Kopylov has made in the grappling department due to his training camps in Dagestan, the Russian has done a bit better at pacing himself as his UFC career has progressed. But with both he and Marco “Tu-Tu-Tulio” coming off losses, I suspect that we will be in store for a classic lower-output affair that has some sort of controversy come scorecards time.
Southpaw stats for UFC 328:
Sean Brady, who faces Joaquin Buckley, is officially 3-0 opposite UFC-level southpaws (Wins: Michael Chiesa, Kelvin Gastelum, Leon Edwards).
Grant Dawson, who faces Mateusz Rebecki, is officially 0-0-1 opposite UFC-level southpaws, drawing with Ricky Glenn (though both of Dawson’s UFC KO losses come to stance-switchers in Bobby Green and Manual Torres, who hit him with southpaw crosses).
Jared Gordon, who faces Jim Miller, is officially 1-1 opposite UFC-level southpaws (Wins: Dan Moret; Losses: *Nasrat Haqparast).
Marco Tulio, who faces Roman Kopylov, is officially 1-0 opposite UFC-level southpaws (beating Ihor Potieria).
Pat Sabatini, who faces William Gomis, is officially 0-0 opposite UFC-level southpaws.
Clayton Carpenter, who faces Jose Ochoa, is officially 1-0 opposite UFC-level southpaws (being Juan Camilo Ronderos).
Locked in picks and plays (so far):
Picks:
Chimaev
Taira
Volkov
Brady
Green
Gautier
Amosov
Rebecki
Miller
Kopylov
Patty Sabs
Susurkaev
Ochoa
Plays:
Taira -165 (1.65-U)
Volkov -146 (1.46-U), by sub +2000 (.1-U)
Brady pts/sub -135 (2.5-U)
Sabatini pts/sub -175 (1.75-U)
Amosov pts/sub -115 (1.15-U)
Dawson-Rebecki DNGTD +100 (1-U)
Dawson rd 2 +1300, rd 3 +1700 (.13-U each)
Trixie cycle No. 1: Dawson-Rebecki ends KO +200, Volkov dec +125, Taira sub +175 = +1756 (.15-U exposure on parlay and 2-legger combos at .6-U total exposure)
Trixie cycle No. 2: Susurkaev-Santos dec +150, Green-Stephens ends KO +125, Brady sub +300 = +2150 (.15-U exposure for each 2-leg round robin combo play for .6-U total exposure)
Round Robin/long-shot parlay: Sabatini sub +200, Miller ITD +500, Amosov sub +450, Brady sub +300, Taira rd 2 +700 (.17-U exposure for each 2-leg round robin combo play for 1.7-U exposure total plus .01-U exposure on long-shot parlay at +316700)
BETTING NOTES: (*EDIT: 5/9/26): Ended up adding Volkov after the mogging meme (it was a sign) and added a sprinkle on his sub prop. For my alternate round robin, I went with Ochoa rd 2 instead of Miller ITD and just settled for Taira sub instead of rd 2 given the big number Ochoa’s rd prop brings to the table (the rest same). And for alternate Trixie cycle No. 1, I went with Dawson-Rebecki doesn’t go the distance instead of ends by KO (the rest same). For alternate Trixie Cycle No. 2, I went with Susarkaev dec, Gautier KO, Brady sub. Let’s see if I can finally get some on-the-record bounces my way. Good luck.
I just noticed that you changed Dunkin' Donut in the video to Krispy Kreme doughnut in the article. HUGE improvement! Everybody knows Krispy Kreme is king. Kudos for the attention to detail and always working to improve.
i hope the only reason its a sausage party main events is the they gave the girls mother’s day weekend off ??