Fluid Thoughts for UFC 329

A look at Dan Tom's picks and plays for the upcoming UFC fight card

Thank you for subscribing and welcome to “Fluid Thoughts.”

Basically, these articles will offer my raw, unpolished thoughts on the upcoming card so that fight nerds and gamblers alike can see where I’m headed in an effort to spark your own thoughts and strategies regarding the festivities to come (to which you’re more then welcome to discuss with me or others in the comments below).

*Just understand that this is a ‘fluid’ article that will be edited throughout the week, so don’t take opinions here straight to the bank and be sure to check back to see my final thoughts – which will be locked in by Friday evening before officially posting picks and plays on Saturday morning.

UFC 329 main event: McGregor vs. Holloway 2

Main event thoughts:

The main event for UFC 329 features a rematch of epic proportions when Conor McGregor makes his return to face Max Holloway.

McGregor, who has obviously been busy outside the sport with everything ranging from business ventures to catching sexual assault claims in Irish civil courts, has an undeniable hill to climb in front of him.

As someone currently covering this fight on the ground, I can’t say that the vibes are good for McGregor. In fact, the vibes are bad.

And not not just bad, but there’s an air of disingenuousness that rivals a prime Jon Jones in McGregor’s reactions and reasoning amidst this ‘spiritual journey’ he finds himself in.

The layoff, the lack of the same signs of shape and focus, the loss of aura and main focus on advertising of products new and old… it’s all bad signs.

Should McGregor somehow pull off a win, it was genuinely be one of the bigger upsets of the year in my mind (though the odds, which are always off kilter in McGregor contests, would obviously say different.

I broke down each fighter’s styles in my usual in-depth treatment via MMAJunkie that I encourage you to check out, but this fight, from a styles perspective, comes down to directionality and prolonged exchanges.

Since their first fight, one fighter has been much more active and one fighter has learned to fight off the back foot – – and McGregor is neither.

McGregor, who has prided himself as a businessman, appears to just be here for business. And for that, I’ll match the that energy and also be all about business.

As a combat sports gambler, these are the spots you dream of and wait for: a heavy ‘fan favorite’ who draws unwarranted attention and money opposite a real hitter who stays active in his own world.

Like Mayweather-McGregor or Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson, I’m hoping we can add McGregor-Holloway to the mix given how much money I’m gonna have on Max.

You can see my official plays below, but I’ll also probably have some Holloway rd 2 and 3 sub props unofficially as well.

UFC 329 co-main event: Pimblett vs. Saint Denis

Co-main event thoughts:

In a strange car crash of a matchup, Paddy Pimblett squares off with Benoit Saint Denis.

Although part of me initially wanted to go in the direction of Saint Denis given his current winning form and streak under the unheralded Nicolas Ott, I still see a lot of the same porous defensive holes that have plagued BSD in both victory and defeat.

A southpaw liver kick stoppage or heavy top-pressure pathway is certainly not out of the question for a powerhouse like Saint Denis, but Pimblett might be too much of a stupidly durable opportunist for me to count on a BSD game plan to stay intact.

I’ll be curious to see how Pimblett deals with a southpaw considering the limited sample size in his lone UFC-level fight opposite a southpaw in Jordan Leavitt, but process isn’t exactly something that the Scouser relies on for wins.

It’s an incredibly reluctant pick (as my only play will be a “fight ends round 2” round robin leg), but the pick is Pimblett to capitalize on a BSD mistake and force a stoppage by strikes in the second frame.

Live underdogs I’m looking at:

Quick thoughts:

UFC 329 features a slew of live underdogs, and Kai Kamaka is one of them.

My Xtreme Couture and Hawaiian biases aside, there’s no doubt that Kamaka is the more proven and experienced product.

Don’t get me wrong: I don’t necessarily disagree with Luke Riley being the odds-on favorite (as I’ve highlighted Riley in my Prospects to Watch in 2025 via MMAJunkie), but both the current and opening odds are a bit too wide for my liking.

Riley shows some solid tools like left hooks and good eyes in exchanges, as I see his ceiling being fairly high. That said, Riley is not beyond getting tagged or having to work out of holes early, as I believe that both the points prop and money line on Kamaka is incredibly live, especially considering that, even in defeat, Kamaka is incredibly game and gives the judges plenty to score (hence said recent losses all coming by way of split decision).

Saying someone is ‘the hardest worker in the room’ is one of the most overstated phrases in this space, but Kamaka is probably the hardest worker I’ve seen in this space. I got Kai for +270 early in the week but that line so far gone that I didn’t track it.

Another live dog I like and am picking is King Green.

A longtime underrated and unheralded fighter, Green appears to finally be getting some flowers amidst his latest winning streak. Green could certainly get stopped early by a first-round merchant like Terrance McKinney, but if he survives than I feel like Green will get a stoppage win here.

For that reason, I threw Green round 2 in a round robin and may use the Green KO prop as a Trixie Cycle leg.

Aside from Paddy Pimblett (whom I shared my thoughts on above), the only other underdog I officially picked was Zack Reese.

Whether it’s because I underestimated Reese in the past or the fact that he’s working in my backyard of Xtreme Couture, I can admit that there’s not a ton of reasoning I can give you for this pick – hence me staying away from this fight.

Ryan Gandra may be a first-round merchant on paper (a type I usually fade), but Reese isn’t exactly super durable or defensively responsible. That said, he does have a deceptively diverse offensive toolkit that could bare fruit when paired with this stupid toughness.

Although I officially picked my guy Robert Whittaker, don’t be fooled: this is a clear dog or pass spot opposite Nikita Krylov.

As much as I love Whittaker, I hate this move for him as his recent performances, regardless of weight class, have left a lot to be desired on what appears to be a deteriorating fighter. If what Whittaker told me about his walking weight at middleweight was true, then maybe we do see a slightly more livelier version of Whittaker.

But again, this is dog or pass for Krylov and his finish props in my opinion.

Southpaw stats for UFC 329:

• Max Holloway, who faces Conor McGregor, is officially 2-3 opposite UFC-level southpaws (Wins: Dustin Poirier, Arnold Allen; Losses: Dustin Poirier, Conor McGregor).

• Paddy Pimblett, who faces Benoit Saint Denis, is officially 1-0 opposite UFC-level southpaws (beating Jordan Leavitt).

• Lone’er Kavanagh, who faces Brandon Royval, is officially 1-0 opposite UFC-level southpaws (beating Jose Ochoa).

• King Green, who faces Terrance McKinney, is officially 6-7 opposite UFC-level southpaws (Wins: Erik Koch, Jim Miller, Jacob Volkmann, Alan Patrick, Nasrat Haqparast, Lance Gibson Jr.; Losses: Dustin Poirier, Jailin Turner, Drew Dober, Dan Lauzon, Tim Means, Francisco Trinaldo, Islam Makhachev).

Locked in picks and plays (so far):

Picks:

• Holloway

• Pimblett

• Sandhagen

• Kavanagh

• Green

• Whittaker

• Steveson

• Yanez

• Kamaka

• Wang

• PINAS

• Basharat

• Reese

• Costa

Plays:

• Holloway -225 (5-U), by Guillotine +1300 (.2-U)

• Holloway rd 2 +600 (.37-U), rd 3 +700 (.33-U), rd 4 +800 (.3-U)

• Parlay: Costa, Yanez = -135 (2.5-U)

• PINAS PARLAY: PINAS, Basharat, Holloway = +134 (1.69-U)

• Kamaka 3.5 pts -115 (1.15-U)

• Basharat-Garza Under 2.5 rds -104 (1.04-U)

• Costa ITD +100 (1-U)

• Trixie Cycle: Basharat sub +125, Pinas-Almeida goes to dec +240, Green KO +200 = +2156 (.15-U exposure on parlay and 2-legger combos at .6-U total exposure)

• Round Robin/long-shot parlay: Costa rd 2 +450, Kamaka +225, Green rd 2 +700, BSD-Paddy ends rd 2 +275, Holloway rd 2 +450 (.17-U exposure for each 2-leg round robin combo play for 1.7-U exposure total plus .01-U exposure on long-shot parlay at +294837)

BETTING NOTES:

*EDIT (7/11): So I messed up below saying I wouldn’t need an alternate forgetting that I had “fight ends rd 2” for the co-main… so instead, I went Paddy rd 2 (as well as Holloway rd 3) in my alternate round robin. Good luck!

As far as alternate round robins go, I don’t think I’ll need one given the straight forward money line and round prop options I elected. Green and Holloway would be mandatory live bets (as well as possibly Paddy), but I’ll be covering this event live and god forbid trying to stay professional so I’m going heavy pre-flop. Good luck with whatever you end up on and sorry for not getting this out as early as I thought/wanted.

So I messed up below saying I wouldn’t need an alternate forgetting that I had “fight ends rd 2” for the co-main… so instead, I went Paddy rd 2 (as well as Holloway rd 3) in my alternate round robin. Good luck!