Thank you for subscribing and welcome to “Fluid Thoughts.”
Basically, these articles will offer my raw, unpolished thoughts on the upcoming card so that fight nerds and gamblers alike can see where I’m headed in an effort to spark your own thoughts and strategies regarding the festivities to come (to which you’re more then welcome to discuss with me or others in the comments below).
*Just understand that this is a ‘fluid’ article that will be edited throughout the week, so don’t take opinions here straight to the bank and be sure to check back to see my final thoughts – which will be locked in by Friday evening before officially posting picks and plays on Saturday morning.
And for those who miss hearing me via podcast, I jumped on Action Network’s weekly MMA betting show with my guy Billy Ward that’s linked below!
UFC 330 main event: Makhachev vs. Garry
Main event thoughts:
The main event in Philly features a welterweight title fight between Islam Makhachev and Ian Garry.
Aside from the fact that Garry officially standing undefeated opposite UFC-level southpaws, I believe that there are more tricky stylistic intangibles than meet the eye.
Whether we’re talking about Garry’s insisted right whizzer matching up with Makhachev’s insistent left underhook or the challenger’s single-leg defense compared to the champion’s offense, I can’t wait to get more definitive information this weekend.
I really put a lot into this week’s in-depth main event breakdown article via MMAJunkie that I sincerely hope you check out (as it features full sets of clips and more there),
But one thing I didn’t cover there is the fact that I’m also sprinkling some exposure on Makhachev as well.
As I explain in the Action Network video linked atop this article, Makhachev’s D’arce and Kimura props are live as I believe that a submission win, in general, is a larger part of Makhachev’s win conditions than perhaps even his backers are giving credit for.
For that reason, I sprinkled small on those outcomes and will likely have Makhachev’s submission props in my round robin to help hedge my money line flier on the challenger.
UFC 330 co-main event: Dern vs. Robertson
Co-main event thoughts:
The co-main event on Paramount+ features, by technical definition, a title fight between Mackenzie Dern and Gillian Robertson.
Dern, who recently won a vacant belt after Zhang Weili went on hiatus from the division, is being set up with a similarly favorable matchup to her last one opposite Virna Hanjijoba.
And though I was willing to both pick and play Virna (aka HANJI JOBES), I don’t believe that Robertson can match Virna’s power or durability – as the latter is what worries me most here.
Robertson will should have an edge in the offensive wrestling and see her single-leg series having solid play against Dern’s traditionally poor defense. But unless Robertson can hurt Dern early, then I’m not sure I trust her to sustain control down the stretch against a superior athlete who is a proven dog that can dig deep in victory or defeat.
I broke this fight down more in-depth via my MMAJunkie breakdown (why the lack of sample size of fighters establishing top half on Dern was so key), but the pick is begrudgingly for Dern.
I feel like round 3 will be a hot round for both, as “fight ends round 3” may be a cheeky high-value flier leg for my round robin (with maybe Dern by sub for my alternate in houses that don’t offer cheeky props). I did take a flier on Dern by armbar as well considering the positions what Robertson gives in victory or defeat – and I’ll also will likely use Dern by sub if I add a Trixie Cycle.
Live underdogs I’m looking at:
Quick thoughts:
Aside from the underdog that I’m stupidly siding with in the main event, Kaue Fernandes is one of the only other underdogs I officially picked at UFC 330 .
Despite being admittedly torn and probably doing more tape than necessary, I ended up officially siding with Fernandes over “Mr. Turner,” Jalin Turner. And though Fernandes is officially 0-0 opposite UFC-level southpaws, the Brazilian has seen the stance plenty considering that he either faces stance-switchers or forces his opponents to switch due to the leg kicks that “The Lumberjack"“ lands.
As Jack Slack points out in the video above, Turner’s countering sensibilities translate fairly well when facing kicking threats. That said, Fernandes appears to have some counter-balancing checking punches to this kick that, coupled with his punch-and-clutch nature, could stymie Turner’s traditional attempts to counter and follow his foes out of the pocket.
Fernandes, who is a Nova Uniao product, has also looked good whenever operating in open-stance exchanges. Not only does Fernandes’ dynamic kicking tools translate seamlessly, but his punches arguably look more potent when striking opposite the southpaw stance.
I wrote about this fight more in my feature via Action Network that’s dropping on fight day, where I lay out why “fight starts round 2
” and “fight ends in KO” (shoutout to my colleague Billy Ward for that one) could also be live angles. That said, at current money line prices, I just ended up picking a side and riding.
*EDIT (8/15): Ugh… so good thing I had a Freudian slip in the picks section below because I feel like this was a classic ‘picking a dog just to pick a dog’ spot where I’m doing that thing where I over-correct the steering wheel against my Xtreme Couture bias as I ended up ultimately liking the Occam’s Razor outcome of this fight at bare minimum plus money for my Trixie Cycle (shoutout to Chronic Combat Conversation’s Guru Scouting MMA for the clarity). But again, as I stated below, this fight is not worth major exposure. Disregard the rest of this section lol.
Lastly but not leastly, I ended up picking Eric McConjugal to manifest his underdog sensibilities opposite Donte Johnson.
Although I can appreciate Johnson relocating to my backyard of Xtreme Couture MMA to train, it’s probably gonna take a whole lot more than one high-level camp to smooth out the rawness and jank in his game.
McConjugal may not jump off the page, but MMA LAB product is deceptively well-trained and presents a stymying southpaw style that can be a unique ask for someone as early in their career as Johnson.
I expect Johnson to come out hot and potentially find a finish, but I need to see more improvements to his skills and process before I can pick him comfortably to win. Outside of a finish method prop on either side here, this fight is probably not worth any major exposure.
Southpaw stats for UFC 330:
Ian Garry, who faces Islam Makhachev, is officially 4-0 opposite dedicated, UFC-level southpaws (Wins: Carlos Prates, Jordan Williams, Geoff Neal, Daniel Rodriguez).
Kaue Fernandes, who faces Jalin Turner, is officially 0-0 opposite dedicated, UFC-level southpaws (but has both faced a fair amount of stance-switchers and forced plenty of stance switches due to his leg kicks).
Donte Johnson, who faces Eric McConico, is officially 0-0 opposite UFC-level southpaws.
Locked in picks and plays (so far):
CFFC 159 Picks:
Bobe
Betancourt
Bubalaidze
Simons
Lewis
Delarosa
Delgado
Palmer
Murodov
CFFC 159 Plays:
Betancourt -125 (1.25-U)
Palmer, Delarosa, Bobe = +169 (1-U)
Pruden +600 (.4-U)
UFC 330 Picks:
Garry
Dern
Fernandes
Terrance Malik
Ribovics
Alvarez
C. Johnson
D. Johnson
Fernando
Brahimaj
Oralboy
UFC 330 Plays:
Luque-Gore DGTD, Ribovics KO +145 (1.5-U)
Oralboy-Wells DGTD, Ribo-Barboza DGTD, Jalin-Kaue DGTD +138 (1.5-U)
SGP: Brahimaj/U 2.5 +125 (1.5-U)
Fernandes +125 (1.5-U)
*Action Network play: Fernandes O 0.5 TDs +110 (1-U)
Oralboy rd 1, 2 -130 (1.5-U)
Alvarez ITD -150 (1.5-U)
Garry +285 (1.5-U)
Makhachev sub +250 (.5-U)
Makhachev D’arce +550 (.33-U), Kimura/Americana +4000 (.17-U)
Dern armbar +500 (.37-U)
Trixie Cycle: Oralboy dec +220, D. Johnson KO +100, Dern sub +250 = +2140 (.15-U exposure on parlay and 3 2-legger combos at .6-U total exposure)
Round Robin/long-shot parlay: Brahimaj rd 1 +275, Alvarez sub +150, Fernandes KO +250, Dern-Robertson ends rd 3 +850, Makhachev sub +200 (.17-U exposure for each 2-leg round robin combo play for 1.7-U exposure total plus .05-U exposure on long-shot parlay at +93415)
*BETTING NOTES: Alright… big slate, I know. But between the market move forcing my hand at another bet for my Action feature (which I suggest you check our for my reasoning on the prop) to the No. I found on Makhachev by sub, I ended up adding more. I also added a Trixie Cycle as an excuse to get some Oralboy decision equity into the mix given both my exposure on that fight not going the distance, as well as my usual luck with finding the fights that don’t finish when expected to. As far as atlernate round robins for houses that don’t offer cheeky props go, I ended up keeping in vanilla and doubling down on Dern by sub instead of the “fight ends in round 3” prop. Good luck with whatever you end up on!
Ian Garry by walkoff Dec at +500. Yes please
One of the few I've seen that's picking Garry to win, I hope he can deliver the upset😤