Fluid Thoughts for UFC Kansas City

A look at Dan Tom's picks and plays for the upcoming UFC fight card

Thank you for subscribing and welcome to “Fluid Thoughts.”

Basically, these articles will offer my raw, unpolished thoughts on the upcoming card so that fight nerds and gamblers alike can see where I’m headed in an effort to spark your own thoughts and strategies regarding the festivities to come (to which you’re more then welcome to discuss with me or others in the comments below).

*Just understand that this is a ‘fluid’ article that will be edited throughout the week, so don’t take opinions here straight to the bank and be sure to check back to see my final thoughts – which will be locked in by Friday evening before officially posting picks and plays on Saturday morning.

UFC Kansas City main event: Garry vs. Prates

Main event thoughts:

The main event in Kansas City features a semi-impromptu showdown between Ian Machado Garry and Carlos Prates.

Apologies for both being late and for the shortened writing effort here, but I’ve had a lot pop this week from personal stuff to professional stuff (that I hope I can share soon).

As far this fight/a more detailed breakdown of it goes, I posted a mini southpaw report thread on Ian Garry over on my twitter (as well as an in-depth breakdown that should already be out via MMAJunkie.com).

Gary, who officially stands at 3-0 opposite UFC-level lefties, is someone who I’ve long-argued strikes better with southpaws than he does against orthodox opposition. That said, I still don’t like the idea of him having to strike with a southpaw specialist like Prates who is very familiar with some of the tactics that Garry likes to employ.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see Garry continue his recent trends of more grapple-heavy offense (and possibly bank a round or two in the process should he get some back control), but Prates’ grip awareness and clinch savvy could stymie a lot of the Brazilian-Irishman’s efforts considering that most of Garry’s attempts from the clinch.

Add in the fact that Garry tends to play Prates’ preferred kill zone between the cage and inner-black octagon lines, and I’ll side with the fighter with a full camp and superior cage positioning.

Although a Garry win by decision (or even stoppage) wouldn’t necessarily surprise me, I still ended up taking a shot on the Prates plus money.

UFC Kansas City co-main event: Smith vs. Zhang

Co-main event thoughts:

The co-main event in Kansas City is a crossroads bout billed as a retirement fight.

Remember when I pointed out in previous podcasts and writings how I’m cool with all the unpopular fighters that MMA Twitter loves to terrorize?

Well, of course I’m a fan and friendly with Anthony Smith, who was the first UFC fighter to publicly shout The Protect Ya’ Neck Podcast (which thanks again for the love shown for the shows brief return this past PPV).

I even did a breakdown show with Anthony Smith that week, so whatever bias bleed-over I’m feeling is clearly fresh.

To make things worse, I’m actually high on the prospsects on Zhang Mingyang (well, for a light heavyweight, anyway).

I have no issue with Zhang being favored to win this fight, but even if I could put my bias aside and pick him firmly to win – I believe he is priced out of my play range.

Don’t be surprised to see a Smith pick, but know I’m staying as far away from this fight as I can.

Live underdogs I’m looking at:

Quick thoughts:

*EDIT (4/25/25): Ended up pulling the trigger on Dalby as I couldn’t say no to a +245 line. I also sprinkled a little on the Under 2.5 rounds which I got at an absurd +270 at Bet Online as a potential bonus or hedge given that Brown should ideally win by a finish. I like my Castaneda pick even less given that Gutierrez will have the bigger cage to dance around in, but I decided to put my money where my mouth is in regards to the regional judging trend I always talk about and put this fight to end by split decision (along with Cuamba-Romero and Elder-Young) in my round robin. I also added more to my Pereira play given my math on needing a heavier chalk anchor with current spread, as a Pereira win outright will pay off my round robin exposure.

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Although I’ve yet to make an official play, I did end up siding with Nicholas Dalby over Randy Brown by some admittedly narrow margins. Although the straight shots of Brown will be live to put Dalby’s lights out early (especially if he shifts to southpaw), I suspect that Dalby’s high-pace and high-grinding style will provide problems for the American if he’s not able to find a finish. Brown has always been a skilled fighter whom I like, but he fights way too close for comfort as that’s been my long criticism of his style. Dalby, on the other hand, will fight for your money. I also noticed that Dalby has a keen eye for knees (which have been a surprising piece of kryptonite for the tall Rude Boy Brown throughout his UFC tenure). Whether or not I play Dalby straight up, him by decison or the fight to end in split will likely be in my round robin (as I – as always – remind you the split decisions, particularly in the prelims, are extra live when the UFC goes to regional markets for Fight Nights given how most Athletic Commissions run their judging assignments). And despite my fear that John Castaneda will be giving up some serious size to Chris Gutierrez with this bout being re-adjusted to 145 pounds, I still believe that he is the more versatile and consistent fighter – but haven’t pulled the trigger either (might look a decision prices if I’m having trouble filling out the round robin). There may be some classic “dog or pass” spots like Chandler-Edwards in the opener, but there’s not a lot of underdogs I like outside of what I spoke about above/in the featured fights. I like Michel Pereira as favorite and played money line and may throw his submission prop in the round robin along with Matt Schnell to win in Round 2.

Locked in picks and plays (so far):

Picks:

• Prates

• Smith

• Onama

• Pereira

• Dalby

• Aliskerov

• Schnell

• Young

• Castaneda

• Blackshear

• Wellmaker

• Anorim

• Cuamba

• Edwards

Plays:

• Prates +115 (2-U)

• Schnell ITD -110 (2.2-U)

• Pereira -139 (1.5-U)

• *Pereira ADD -145 (1-U)

• Pereira sub +800 (.33-U)

• Dalby +245 (1-U)

• Dalby-Brown U 2.5 +270 (.37-U)

• Round Robin/long-shot parlay: Cuamba-Romer split, Guti-Castenada split, Elder-Young split, Pereira sub, Smith money line (1.70-U exposure on RR, .01-U exposure on long-shot parlay)

That’s all for now… feel free to check back here for updates throughout the week.