Fluid Thoughts for UFC Nashville

A look at Dan Tom's picks and plays for the upcoming UFC fight card

Thank you for subscribing and welcome to “Fluid Thoughts.”

Basically, these articles will offer my raw, unpolished thoughts on the upcoming card so that fight nerds and gamblers alike can see where I’m headed in an effort to spark your own thoughts and strategies regarding the festivities to come (to which you’re more then welcome to discuss with me or others in the comments below).

*Just understand that this is a ‘fluid’ article that will be edited throughout the week, so don’t take opinions here straight to the bank and be sure to check back to see my final thoughts – which will be locked in by Friday evening before officially posting picks and plays on Saturday morning.

You can also listen to my thoughts every UFC fight week via the Dog or Pass Podcast, which is recorded and dropped every Wednesday via YouTube and all podcast feeds.

UFC Nashville main event: Lewis vs. Teixeira

Main event thoughts:

The main event in Nashville features a heavyweight slugfest between two fighters at different points of their career.

Although the oddsmakers and public are favoring the younger and undefeated fighter in Tallison Teixiera, the 25-year-old Brazilian is still incredibly unproven given that he’s yet to even see a second round in his 8-fight career.

Teixeira is apparently a solid Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, but fighters who try to grapple Derrick Lewis have traditionally done the worst. I suspect that Teixeira’s body kicks will have play in this matchup, but Lewis has a knack for kick counters that “Xicao” will need to respect (especially considering his propensity for classic ‘tall guy defense’ with the way he keeps his head right on the centerline.

Add in the fact that Lewis is 3-0 opposite tall fighters 6’7” or above, and I can’t help but take a flier on “The Black Beast” to turn back another non-Top 5 fighter in classic Lewis fashion – – meaning Lewis will likely have to survive some heavy storms first.

UFC Nashville co-main event: Thompson vs. Bonfim

Co-main event thoughts:

The co-main event in Nashville features a crossroads fight at welterweight between Stephen Thompson and Gabriel Bonfim.

Although I’m been a longtime fan Thompson and defender of his style, there’s no denying that “Wonderboy” has steadily declined over the years.

Despite doing better than credit for in recent outings, Thompson’s footwork and range sensibilities have been slowly falling apart for years now – becoming especially apparent as of late. Add in the fact that we haven’t seen Thompson since October of last year, and I find myself being not so hopeful of a vintage return to form.

Bonfim may still be unproven in the upper echelons, but I think the decision win over Ange Loosa did a lot for his confidence as far as pace management goes.

The Brazilian has also shown some noted improvements of his jab and it’s interplay with other weapons like hooks and low kicks (which should come in handy against a karate stylist like Thompson).

Most importantly, Bonfim has a solid level change that he can use when coming forward or countering, displaying solid chain wrestling options to and from the clinch. Coupled with his wicked opportunistic submission acumen, and I suspect that Bonfim has a good chance of locking something up this Saturday.

Although part of me wanted to throw Thompson in a round robin despite officially picking Bonfim, I may also be tempted to use Bonfim submission and round 2 props for potential legs instead.

Live underdogs I’m looking at:

Quick thoughts:

Coming in as the first official “Benji Boy Dog Of The Day” for the Dog Or Pass Podcast, Nate Landwehr is one of my favorite underdogs on the card outside of Derrick Lewis in the main event.

Although I was willing to pick him before coming across even more context on his prior performance, it’s important to note that Landwehr was apparently dealing with a slew of issues in his last outing opposite Doo Ho Choi that ranged from illness to a broken hand. And despite this type of information being tricky to take too seriously, it really looks like Landwehr is telling the truth when going back to watch the fight.

Taking nothing away from Choi, but Landwehr – aside from hardly throwing strikes outside of elbows – also appeared to be struggling in the stamina department, which is highly unusual for the dogged American.

Don’t get me wrong: Morgan Charriere is the deserved favorite and probably wins this fight more often than not. That said, Charriere – as his record would indicate – has a propensity to fight close and have whatever kind of fight his opponent prefers.

For that reason, trusting fighters like Charriere at moderate-to-high favorites can be tricky. Add in the fact that the Frenchman will be flying overseas to compete in enemy territory, and I suspect that Landwehr will be more than motivated to put on a classic war that gets everyone going regardless of who wins.

I’m tempted to take a stab on Landwehr straight up given the fact that his front-headlock game and late rallies could be live on Charriere, but I suspect that the points handicap approach is the safer play since there will likely be spots to jump in live on Landwehr if he survives the first frame ok. I can also throw Landwehr’s money line in my round robin pre-flop for low exposure if I don’t play it straight up, but the split prop for this fight might be more tempting as far as a round robin leg goes.

Tuco Tokkos and Valter Walker feel like inherent live dogs given both the level and who they’re fighting, but not enough for me to want to get too involved.

I don’t blame anyone for siding with Jake Matthews (a.k.a. “JAYKE METHEUUUUWWS), especially given the historically scary and sketchy nature of Chidi Njokuani’s weight cuts to 170 pounds. However, Matthews’ long reluctance to grapple is keeping me way from his side, as I suspect that Njokuani’s skills and stature will bring about another slightly-startled performance out of the Australian.

I still ended up with both in “funsie parlays” given how the podcast shaked out this week, but I doubt I’ll have any serious stakes or futher exposure on this fight.

Southpaw stats for UFC 317:

• Calvin Kattar, who faces southpaw Steve Garcia, is officially 0-1 against UFC-level lefties (losing to Arnold Allen). Kattar also fought a stance-switching Giga Chikadze, who had his best moments from southpaw and worst from orthodox.

• Max Griffin, who faces southpaw Chris Curtis, is officially 1-2 against UFC-level lefties (beating Tim Means by split decision and losing to Michael Chiesa and Colby Covington).

• Valter Walker, who faces southpaw Kennedy Nzechukwu, is officially 0-0 against UFC-level southpaws.

Locked in picks and plays (so far):

Picks:

• Lewis

• Bonfim

• CREAM MACHINE (Garcia)

• NATE THE TRAIN (Landwehr)

• Petrino

• Tafa

• Curtis

• Njokuani

• Moura

• Nzechukwu

• Davis

• Kline

Plays:

• Garcia -120 (2-U)

• Lewis +240 (1.5-U)

• Landwehr 3.5 pts -150 (1.5-U)

• Thompson-Bonfim U 2.5 -125 (1.25-U)

• Curtis rd 2 +850 (.23-U), rd 3 +1200 (.17-U)

• Njokuani by sub +3000 (.10-U)

• Parlay: Curtis/Davis-Martinez U 2.5 = +114 (1.45-U)

• Parlay: Curits-Griffin O 2.5/Murphy-Moura O 2.5 = -111 (1.66-U)

• *LFA parlay: Njokuani/Curtis/Garcia/Bonfim = +397 (.5-U)

• *DOP parlay: Davis-Martinez U 2.5/Matthews/Garcia/Landwehr = +2165 (.20-U)

• *HOF parlay: Davis sub/Lewis KO = +1175 (.20-U)

• Round Robin/long-shot parlay: Kline rd 3 +550, Davis sub +225, Petrino rd 2 +250, Charriere-Landwehr ends in split +400, Bonfim rd 2 +350 (1.70-U exposure on RR, .03-U exposure on long-shot parlay)

*BETTING NOTES: So since I used some super cheeky props for my round robin, alternative round robins at houses without stuff like “fight ends by split decision” not being available will force us to cook a bit different so, like I said on the show, I went Landwehr money line at my one house that doesn't offer the split props. Basically, I usually set these up so I just need 2 legs to hit for it to profit (and anything more hitting starts to get you into lottery territory). I also couldn’t get access to certain traditional totals over the counter/at houses like Bet MGM, so I ended up cooking a solid 3-legger parlay on my unofficial plays instead of the two listed above and I’ll give it here if you’re interested: Curtis/Moura-Murphy starts rd 3/Davis-Ramirez won’t go the distance comes out to roughly +127. I also had a free play of 10 bucks in one house and decided to sprinkle it on Njokuani by sub given my sneaky suspicion on the sub upside. Outside of roughly half of Mathews’ losses coming by way off submission, most of those sub losses are by front choke variations – which fit both Njokuani’s limited sub history and what traditionally works for his kind of frame. I think that Matthews may be forced to shoot soberly or when hurt given Njokuani’s elbow and knee threats in clinch range, so the club and sub could be live. Outisde of live betting opportunities that arise, I’ll be tempted to add the under 2.5 rounds in the Thompson-Bonfim fight despite once again claiming to be on Team Fuck Unders. Lol. Good luck!

That’s all for now… feel free to check back here for updates throughout the week.