Fluid Thoughts for UFC Vegas 106

A look at Dan Tom's picks and plays for the upcoming UFC fight card

Thank you for subscribing and welcome to “Fluid Thoughts.”

Basically, these articles will offer my raw, unpolished thoughts on the upcoming card so that fight nerds and gamblers alike can see where I’m headed in an effort to spark your own thoughts and strategies regarding the festivities to come (to which you’re more then welcome to discuss with me or others in the comments below).

*Just understand that this is a ‘fluid’ article that will be edited throughout the week, so don’t take opinions here straight to the bank and be sure to check back to see my final thoughts – which will be locked in by Friday evening before officially posting picks and plays on Saturday morning.

UFC Vegas 106 main event: Burns vs. Morales

Main event thoughts:

The main event in Las Vegas features a showdown between contenders that’s lined like a crossroads fight.

Although I don’t disagree with Morales being favored from a betting perspective, the odds have clearly gotten out of hand for an inexperienced fighter with hardly a semblance of process to be seen.

I think Jack Slack put it best in a recent tweet of his, saying that, “this guy looks like a monster but fights like a create-a-fighter before you get any moves.”

The sad part, however, is that what Morales does do well may sadly be enough to beat Burns.

Aside from the somewhat-astonishing realization I had in regards to Burns lacking any wins over prime fighters since his move up to welterweight, checking jabs and counter crosses have long been a common culprit for the beloved Brazilian.

I don’t like that fact that Morales lays in wait for opporunistic explosions and getups whenever put on his back, but getting him there appears to be a tall task given his balance, athleticism and freestyle wrestling background.

I’ll likely sprinkle small on Burns out of principle if his betting line keeps climbing north of 5-1 underdog odds, but I can’t help but see the potency of Morales’ straight punches in this spot.

Officially picking the Ecuadorian to win via stoppage in Round 2 but will be hoping I’m wrong.

UFC Vegas 106 co-main event: Craig vs. Bellato

Co-main event thoughts:

Man… I wasn’t kidding when I said that co-main events outside of PPVs have practically been extinct since the pandemic.

All respect to these fellas, but I don’t know if this squash match is worth the write-up, as I’ll use this as an opportunity to point my people to my new weekly podcast, the Dog or Pass Podcast – a long-going podcast that I recently took over as show host.

There’s been a been of a drop off in numbers as well as reception (which is to be expected when you take over a beloved, long-standing show despite the move being amicable one), so your support from listenership, subscriptions, friendly comments and shares really means a lot – especially if you plan on/missed listening to my crazy ass anyways.

The show will also drop everyday Wednesday, which is way sooner than I’ve been able to get these articles out to you (which I’ll still do as this place will be even more of a landing spot for all the new Podcast audience members who are curious to see where I officially land on before fight day).

Thank you again for your support! I may struggle to get everything out at the time I’d like, but you can rest assure that I always work hard to bring my best as I’ll continue to keep bring you free, in-depth analysis in some form or fashion.

Live underdogs I’m looking at:

Quick thoughts:

No, that’s not Cameron from “Ferris Bueller’s Day Off,” it’s Julian Erosa!

Unfortunately I’m not the only one looking at this underdog given that the price has been coming on down on ole Cameron, but the money movement at least confirms that it’s not just my Xtreme Couture MMA bias leading me this way. And though I may ultimately be led astray, I’d still argue that this fight should be a pick’em at the very least.

I’m a big fan of Erosa’s opponent, Melquizael Costa, but I’m not sure “Milky” matches the archetype that has traditionally troubled Erosa: athletic studs with early knockout potential.

Costa is a good kicker who could certainly have moments against Erosa, but the Brazilian isn’t exactly the fastest starter as he tends to be a bit reactive before getting going in the middle minutes of a fight. Add in the fact that he’s facing someone just as skilled and strong (if not slightly more in some areas), and I’ll take a shot on the underdog.

I also was on the rare side of an early line grab, as I was able to get Jared Gordon, who opened as an underdog before the line flipped, at +105.

Outside of being allergic to southpaws, I’ll usually only fade Moises if he’s facing a consistent offense threat who can pressure – and I’d say Gordon fits the latter half of that bill. Terrible scorecards seem to follow Gordon anytime I play him, but I plugged my nose and took another on the native New Yorker yet again.

Despite officially (and severely reluctantly) siding with Nursulton Ruziboev, I believe that Dustin Stoltzfus is a live dog in this spot – so long as he doesn’t get annihilated when closing distance, of course. If you thought Morales was getting a lot of mileage out of a limited game, then let me hit you introduce you to ‘WhoseYourBoev.’

Lesser of an athlete than Morales (and with almost no wrestling to speak of), Ruziboev has recently spent the end of his training camps at Marquez MMA in Philly, which is the home of Sean Brady, Joe Pyfer, etc. Althought that’s a great camp for the Uzbek fighter on paper, I’m not sure how much we can bank on his improvements if this fight hits the ground – where I see Stoltzfus having a huge advantage.

Unless the Stoltzfus line gets to a price I can’t refuse as far as small sprinkles go, then this will be a fight I will definitely target live should the German-loving maniac survive the majority of the first frame (or I might throw him into the Round Robin that I’m still assembling if I’m in need of legs).

*EDIT (5/16/25): Saw enough to semi-reluctantly side with Hernandez but not enough to come close to wanting to play this fight. A stay away for me.

Carlos Hernandez is the only other underdog that caught my eye but that’s also the last fight I’ve yet to throughly tape, so I’ll get back to you there.

Otherwise, despiteobviously being excited for prospects that have been on my prospect watch articles like Matheus Camilo who is making his UFC debut this weekend, I don’t blame anyone for taking a stab on Gabe Green given the betting spread for that fight.

You can say the same for Sodiq Yusuff opposite the lesser-experienced Mairon Santos, but Yusuff’s openness and honesty about the neck and back troubles that have adversely affected his life should be taken under serious consideration as he self-admittedly doesn’t sound healthy for this fight.

Locked in picks and plays (so far):

Picks:

• Morales

• Bellato

• Santos

• Ruziboev

• Erosa

• Camilo

• Gordon

• DelValle

• Santos

• Gomes

• Hernandez

• Pennington

Plays:

• Gordon +105 (1.5-U)

• Erosa +160 (1.06-U)

• DelValle-Matthews U 2.5 -110 (1.10-U)

• DelValle rd 2 +500 (.37-U), rd 3 +750 (.25-U)

• Parlay: Pennington, Gomes, DelValle, Santos-Lisbo O 2.5 = +140 (1.50-U)

• *HOF parlay: Gomes rd 2, DelValle KO = +2012 (.20-U)

• Pennington rd 3 +2000 (.17-U)

• Gomes rd 3 +900 (.17-U)

• Erosa rd 3 +1400 (.17-U)

• Gordon rd 3 +2500 (.17-U)

• Round Robin/long-shot parlay: Pennington rd 3, DelValle KO, Gordon rd 2, Erosa rd 2, Bellato rd 2 (1.70-U exposure on RR, .01-U exposure on long-shot parlay)

That’s all for now… feel free to check back here for updates throughout the week.