The Southpaw Report for UFC 304
Dan Tom breaks down the records of fighters who are facing southpaws
The Southpaw Report for UFC 304
Hello and welcome to the southpaw report!
Aside from the fact that most statistics you see on major broadcasts are drawn from a faulty well of information full of misinterpretation and human error, the statistical categories discussed generally lack proper sample sizes and contexts.
So, with that in mind, I try and provide unique, applicable and (hopefully) interesting stats in the form of my patent southpaw reports.
Here, I will do my best to provide you with everything from stats to written and visual analysis covering every fighter facing a dedicated southpaw on upcoming UFC cards.
This week, UFC 304 features three dedicated southpaws on the card, but my dumbass initially thought it was four (somehow thinking Marcin Prachnio was a dedicated lefty). I have the profiles just didn’t bother checking as my head has been in a billion places this week – hence the late report. Massive apologies and I’ll be sure to make this post free for keeping you waiting.
The Southpaw Report:
Leon Edwards vs. Belal Muhammad
Summary: Belal Muhammad, who rematches Leon Edwards at UFC 304, is 5-2-1 against UFC-level southpaws (W: Chris Curtis, Chance Recountre, Tim Means, Demian Maia, Takashi Sato; L: Alan Jouban, Geoff Neal; NC: Leon Edwards)
Muhammad, unlike a lot of orthodox fighters who face southpaws, doesn’t abandon his jab as he smartly works the body and looks to counter.
Muhammad also looks to have cribbed some tactics from another versatile yet undersized fighter in Alexander Volkanovski when it comes to rear-handed leads to the body in order to come up his patent left hand up high (Muhammad also likes to use leg kicks to close range but those options alter in the open stance as he mainly looks for single body kicks).
That said, aside from the fact that he arguably lost to Means, left-sided strikes – regardless of stance – remain to land at a disproportionate rate on Muhammad and are the common thread in his knockdowns and losses.
A large part of this, in my opinion, can be attributed to an adage I’m always repeating in regards to the wrestle-boxer archetype inherently flowing fighters right into the power lanes of classic southpaw attacks.
Whether it’s a wrestler with level-changes wired into their reactions or they’re just doing the natural thing of flinching away from the traditional power side, orthodox fighters tend to dip to their right – something that is mechanically facilitated by the stance it self since dipping backwards isn’t really a thing (unless we’re talking about less practical backbends that are ‘Bangkok ready’).
As seen/stated in the clip above, Muhammad not only naturally dips to said power side, but his rear hand (which I noticed that he traditionally keeps a little low in general standing positions) is also his primary parry option for straight shots regardless of stance.
But if you’re looking for an even deeper dive on Muhammad’s tactics (as well as some potential fixes that I happen to agree with), then I strongly suggest you check out Ryan Wagner’s analysis on the subject
Not only does Wagner highlight some key tactics, but he’s just a great follow in general for high-level combat sports analysis.
Arnold Allen vs. Giga Chikadze
Summary: Giga Chikadze, who faces Arnold Allen at UFC 304, is officially 2-0 opposite UFC-level southpaws (beating Alex Caceres and Irwin Rivera).
Chikadze, who is competent from both stances, doesn’t really change his approach too much when facing a southpaw.
Although Chikadze’s famed “Giga kick” comes from his southpaw side, he throws his patent body kick with the same vigor from orthodox as well. Chikadze also likes to sit back and wait for opportunities to land his piston-like counter cross, but most of his attacks are one and done.
When feeling in stride, Chikadze will start to flow a bit and get creative. Whether he’s kicking his way into sneaky stance-shifting punches or his timing double roundhouse variations, the Georgian fighter can be a lot to handle if he’s allowed to roll downhill.
However, despite it being a somewhat limited sample size, Caceres was much more competitive with Chikadze than the scorecards let on, showing some solid tactics that could certainly be replicable from the Allen side. From southpaw jabs and crosses to initiative-stealing feints, Allen should have a decent amount to work with if he can comfortable navigate the kicking range (which I suspect won’t be fun early on).
Caolan Loughran vs. Jake Hadley
Summary: Caolan Loughran, who faces Jake Hadley at UFC 304, is officially 0-1 against UFC-level southpaws, losing to Taylor Lapilus in his promotional debut.
Loughran, who is a pressure fighter by nature, showed (in my view) some clear discomfort when trying to navigate this stance pairing. Loughran usually likes to slip and rip his way inside off of hardwired responses, but you can see him desperately searching for ideas and getting stung for it.
Whether Loughran was getting too cute by mimicking a southpaw stance for too long or just simply getting lost off his own slips and rolls, classic southpaw attacks – from power side strikes to lead-handed checks – appeared to have his name on it.
*I also attached some clips of Loughran’s last fight with Angel Pacheco at the end of the video above to show the difference in comfortability I’m speaking of in regard to the usual hard-wired counter combinations that the Irishman prefers (as those samples are all taken from the first few minutes to show how fast he found his range with that stance pairing).
Luckily for Loughran, Hadley is is completely different kind of southpaw stylist than Lapilus (who, to be fair, is a well-seasoned counter striking out-fighter who is a stylistic nightmare that Loughran had to face on short notice). Hadley has some solid body attacks and works out of a unique standing guard, but the Englishman prefers pressuring as opposed to countering on the outside – which probably means we’re in for collisions and close-quarter combat.
This concludes the southpaw report for UFC Vegas 94. Thank you so much for your support and enjoy the fights this weekend!