UFC 313 Fluid Thoughts
A look at Dan Tom's picks and plays for the upcoming UFC fight card
Thank you for subscribing and welcome to “Fluid Thoughts.”
Basically, these articles will offer my raw, unpolished thoughts on the upcoming card so that fight nerds and gamblers alike can see where I’m headed in an effort to spark your own thoughts and strategies regarding the festivities to come (to which you’re more then welcome to discuss with me or others in the comments below).
*Just understand that this is a ‘fluid’ article that will be edited throughout the week, so don’t take opinions here straight to the bank and be sure to check back to see my final thoughts – which will be locked in by Friday evening before officially posting picks and plays on Saturday morning.
UFC 313: Alex Pereira vs. Magomed Ankalaev
Main event thoughts:
The main event for UFC 313 features the long awaited showdown between Alex Pereira and Magomed Ankalaev.
Despite looking like the doppelgänger of Stipe Miocic, the UFC appeared to be dead-set against giving Ankalaev a chance to touch gold.
Now that Ankalaev finally has his chance, part of me suspects that Dagestani Stipe will put all his past inconsistencies aside out of pure irony and spite. But in all seriousness, none of us should be shocked if Ankalaev becomes a more aggressive grappler in this fight.
Although Anakalaev mainly plies himself from the clinch, he’s proven that can get away from his Greco-Roman base and change levels for the occasional double leg (keyword: occasional).
Don’t get me wrong: I believe that Ankalaev is more than capable of banking a round or two off of grappling controls, but I don’t think that the Russian’s skills are within the “game over” range I often reference.
Not only is Pereira a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, but he works his MMA grappling with everyone from Glover Teixeira to Georgian judo olympic team members.
As far as the striking dynamic goes, Pereira tends to do fairly well in open-stance affairs. “Poatan” technically stands at 2-0 opposite UFC-level lefties, but has seen his fair share of southpaws throughout his combat sports career (for a more dedicated analysis on this with visual clips attached, please check out my Southpaw Report via Home of Fight as I could use the views!).
Pereira’s common culprit against southpaws are body kicks and classic 2-3 counters (especially when countered off of Pereira’s own kicks).
Ankalaev has some solid body teeps that will be worth watching out for, but the challenger surprisingly lacks a heavy kick countering presence despite being a counter fighter. Now, in Ankalaev’s defense, he has been better about both pressuring and returning kicks in recent affairs.
The Russian has also shown more of an effort to check kicks as of late, but kick defense and kick returns – two crucial keys to facing Pereira – are the most notably vacant things from Ankalaev’s striking game.
However, it’s worth nothing that Ankalaev does have solid straight punch/jab counters, so we could see Pereira take more of a kick heavy approach against this southpaw.
Ultimately, I sadly suspect that we’re in for a bit of a slog due to the heavy countering dynamics at play. Not only is Ankalaev ok with being complacent for stretches at a time, but we’ve also see Pereira’s game get slightly muted when having to suss out takedown attempts.
I’ll be picking Pereira to win a close and contentious decision.
I played Pereira’s money line and the Over 2.5 rounds (with a little more confidence in the total than the side). I’ll also probably end up throwing Pereira by decision into the round robin.
UFC 313 co-main event: Justin Gaethje vs. Rafael Fiziev 2
Co-main event thoughts:
Death, taxes, and the UFC force-feeding us rematches any chance they get.
Despite being a fan of the first fight (as well as both fighters), I have a difficult time getting too excited for this one.
Fiziev seems to be in good spirits about the opportunity, but that doesn’t change the fact that he’s having to fly halfway across the world on 10 days’ notice after being out of competition for 17 months due to a knee surgery. Add in that Fiziev is already on a two-fight skid, and it’s hard to be happy about his circumstances.
It also doesn’t help that we don’t know how Fiziev tends to fair in rematches.
Gaethje, on the other hand, currently stands at a solid 2-0 in career remtaches and is one of the more dependable action fighters as far as fighting for your money goes.
I would’ve gladly picked Fiziev again if he had a full camp, but I feel forced to side with Gaethje for this sequel.
A Fiziev stoppage early via a liver kick wouldn’t shock me, but I’ll officially pick Gaethje to win by knockout in Round 2.
I’m tempted to take a shot on Gaethje given that he’s surprisingly been set as the underdog, but as for now I’m just on the Under 2.5 rounds. I will probably fire on Gaethje out of principle if his number hits +150 or if I can’t find anything else I like better.
“Seldom do rematches go the same way in MMA.”
Live underdogs I’m looking at:
Quick thoughts:
“Mr. Turner!!”
That’s right. Despite initially leaning toward Ignacio Bahamondes, I ended up liking Jailin Turner after watching some tape for my Southpaw Report (again, go check out my detailed report at Home of Fight).
Aside from Bahamondes technically standing at 0-1 opposite UFC-level lefties (Wins: *Colonel Klink voice* “Ludovit Klein”), Bahamondes – like a lot of fighters – tends to go into a bit of a countering mode when facing a southpaw. I also noticed that Bahamondes had issues with the classic southpaw 3-2 counters, which is a specialty of Turner’s.
I know that Turner imploding off a failed finish is fresh in all of our minds, but Turner credits that to the PTSD he was still dealing with from serving as an accomplice to Kerry Hatley in the murder of Bobby Green.
Seriously, though; Turner appears to be much more determined, dialed in and ready going by each fighter’s socials and interviews. And more importantly, from a stylistic perspective, Turner’s length, speed and shot selection will be hell to deal with for Bahamondes early. I took a flier on Turner’s money live given the public turning him from a favorite to an underdog, but this fight should be wild regardless who wins.
Outside of praying for a Bobby Green upset or putting Brunno Ferreira by knockout in a round robin, there’s not a lot of dogs I like on this card.
Instead, I’m keeping it somewhat simple with big, straight forward shots on slight favorites or plus money that should be in the slight favorite territory.
Locked in picks and plays (so far):
Picks:
Poatan
Gaethje
Turner
Lucindo
Ruffy
Blaydes
Van
Ferreira
Leal
M. Santos
Castenada
D. Santos
Plays:
Poatan-Ankalaev O 2.5 -160 (2-U)
Poatan -110 (1.10-U)
Gaethje-Fiziev U 2.5 +105 (1-U)
Lucindo -125 (1.5-U)
Turner +110 (1-U)
Parlay: M. Santos/Leal/Lemos-Lucindo O 2.5 = +110 (1.5-U)
Leal rd 1 +250 (.40-U)
Tsuruya sub +800 (.25-U)
Round Robin/long-shot parlay: Ferreira KO, Tsuruya sub, Green ML, Turner sub, Pereira dec (1.70-U exposure on RR, .01-U exposure on long-shot parlay)
That’s all for now… feel free to check back here for updates throughout the week.