UFC 317 Fluid Thoughts

A look at Dan Tom's picks and plays for the upcoming UFC fight card

Thank you for subscribing and welcome to “Fluid Thoughts.”

Basically, these articles will offer my raw, unpolished thoughts on the upcoming card so that fight nerds and gamblers alike can see where I’m headed in an effort to spark your own thoughts and strategies regarding the festivities to come (to which you’re more then welcome to discuss with me or others in the comments below).

*Just understand that this is a ‘fluid’ article that will be edited throughout the week, so don’t take opinions here straight to the bank and be sure to check back to see my final thoughts – which will be locked in by Friday evening before officially posting picks and plays on Saturday morning.

You can also listen to my thoughts every UFC fight week via the Dog or Pass Podcast, which is recorded and dropped every Wednesday via YouTube and all podcast feeds.

UFC 317 main event: Ilia Topuria vs. Charles Oliveira

Main event thoughts:

The main event for UFC 317 features a vacant lightweight title fight between Ilia Topuria and Charles Oliveira.

I wrote about this fight in my usual in-depth breakdown format over at MMAJunkie.com, where I linked to

Dan Albert

‘s in-depth study of Topuria’s striking game for those interested in a deeper, technical dive on the tactics and so forth.

Basically, this is a classic case of me hoping I’m wrong with my official prediction.

I’m officially siding with Topuria, not just due to the his deserve hype as a top pressure fighter and pound-for-pound talent, but mainly due to the fact that he posseses certain stylistic attributes that have traditionally troubled Oliveira.

Not only does Topuria show the requisite skills to hang with Oliveira in the grappling department from positive positions, but the former featherweight champion displays the bodywork and timing change-ups that have traditionally troubled “Do Bronx.” And though I suspect Oliveira will offer up his usual plethora of problems in the clinch, I partially worry for the fan favorite’s love for collar ties considering what Alexander Volkanovski was reaching for when he got knocked out by Topuria.

That said, Topuria will have his own worries from a stylistic perspective.

Although I don’t believe that the kicks from an orthodox fighter will be as potent as the ones from a southpaw (as I stand firm that elite southpaws will be problematic for Topuria), Oliveira still packs a decent switch kick a la Jai Herbert that could see some light in the fight along side his usual front teep and knee double-threats. I also wouldn’t be shocked to see him try to recreate the orthodox double-attack dynamic that was present in his finish over Beneil Dariush given Topuria’s dipping sensibilities – albeit to the opposite side given his stance.

Most importantly, Topura will need to make sure he’s careful if he elects to shoot on Oliveira given that he fits his head into his opponent’s left side – which is the same side Oliveira scores all his front chokes from.

Although this was also the case for Islam Makhachev and it mattered not, it’s worth keeping in mind this Saturday. And add in the fact that Oliveira could also steal takedown initiatives with his size and underrated skills, and this feels like it’s dog or pass from a betting perspective.

I’ll be putting “fight ends by submission” in my round robin given the high equity on both sides, and will look to sprinkle on Oliveira and his props if I’m up at that point of the night.

UFC 317 co-main event: Pantoja vs. Kara-France

co-main event thoughts:

How lucky are we “Do Bronx“ and Alexandre Pantoja fans?

Well, I guess we’ll have to wait for the official results this Saturday before we can really answer that question, but you can bet your ass I’m siding with Pantoja to come out on top of yet another rematch (as we are firmly in the rematch era).

Now, I definitely don’t mean to discount the chances of Kai Kara-France as I know MMA gamblers have been tumescent for quite some time when it comes to fading Pantoja an aging Pantoja. That said, I have a hard time liking Kara-France’s chances from both an in-depth and reductive standpoint.

For example, even if Kara-France can get a somewhat sustained striking fight from Pantoja, I’m not sure it will be as clear cut as a lot of MMA gamblers think.

Aside from the fact that Pantoja was one of the first fighters who exploited Kara-France’s susceptibility to left-sided kicks due to his wrestle-boxing archetype (something I called ahead of his last rematch loss to Brandon Moreno), Kara-France’s game has traditionally been prone to getting froze up by takedown threats and other forms of fighters taking away his initiative.

Add in the fact that Kara-France seems hardwired to turtle and allow for back exposure in scrambles, and I can’t help but drop a brick on Pantoja (phrasing, Dan?) considering his cast iron chin and proven prowess.

Apart from making a massive play on the champ (hence the ‘dropping a brick’ reference, you sickos), I’ll also be throwing Pantoja by submission in my round robin.

Live underdogs I’m looking at:

Quick thoughts:

Although Brandon Royval is one of my key canaries in a coal mine in regards to long and lanky fighters who continue to cut down to lower divisions into their 30s, I can’t help but fire on the more proven fighter at plus money.

You know I hate/borderline sadness hedge the one or two times I’ve ever dared pick against Joshua Van (as, in my defense, I’m a huge fan of the Miyanmar native and put him in my prospects to watch column via MMAJunkie before he even got to the UFC), but Van runs the same risk that a prime Donald Cerrone did when it comes to the activity he likes to keep.

Though I can absolutely get on board with his brand of action, we still haven’t seen a large sample of Van against tall southpaws or top 10 talent alike.

Van showed some occasional success when jabbing switch-stance fighters who find themselves in southpaw, but it’s almost like Van abandons his jabs once he realizes he’s in an open-stance affair (as I wouldn’t be shocked if he had a classic MMA striking coach at some point who told him jabs don’t work against a southpaw). Because of this, you can see Van repeatedly have to chase and overthrow his punches against a much-less skilled and raw Rei Tsuruya – who was able to stymie and survive a one-sided beating simply due to these mistakes.

*EDIT (6/27/25): Even though I almost ended up firing on fight ends in Rd 2 as a deadly close second, I ended up going with “fight ends by split” since it’s probably the most likely of hitting and that’s what we’re looking for at the end of the day (and if it does go the decision splits are super live given their style). But since I did go with the split decision prop, I still sprinkled on Royval round 2 due to the hot round nature and high number.

Say what you will about Royval’s tendency to mix in a more leaf blower-like outfighting style (shoutout to the Heavy Hands guys for that term), but that in conjunction with a dynamic southpaw range game could provide a ton of problems to the boxing-centric approach of Van. Add in the fact that Van is making another insane turnaround on short notice, and Royval becomes my second most confident play on the card as I’ll be mixing in inside the distance angles and either “fight ends in Round 2” or “fight ends by TKO” props to cover hot rounds and Van finish/Royval injury equity.

Despite officially picking Renato Moicano (and having a shot bet on him with my co-host Mad Lab Mike via the Dog or Pass Podcast), I don’t for a second deny the liveliness of the Metal Gear Solid 4 version of Beneil Dariush.

If this fight were a few years ago even, I’d firmly pick Dariush in this spot. But between Moicano repeatedly surprising us since his lightweight move to the fact that Dariush’s chin could be just about used up at this point, I can’t help but see a violent, two-way fight were Dariush either body kicks and/or out-grapples Moicano, or Moicano – one of the Top 10 rear-naked choke artists in UFC history (according to me, anyway) – will have ample opportunities to club and sub Dariush the longer this fight goes.

My only bet for Moicano-Dariush is the under.

Another live dog I feel compelled to mention is Hyder Amil. I know I officially picked against him and semi-reluctantly put Jose Delgado in the ‘funsie parlay’ that me and Mike throw together at the end of every podcast we do, but I don’t blame anyone for taking a shot on Amil given his style.

One of my favorite underdog archetypes, Amil is a durable fighter who can both wrestle and fight from southpaw. I stated this same case for Seokhyun Ko last week inspite of semi-reluctantly siding with his opposition in similar fashion, so I’m definitely cruising for a bruising with my Delgado pick.

However, in my defense, I do have real reasons for picking Delgado outside of having more reliable inside info regarding his hype than most.

Although Amil is technically the more proven fighter with a larger UFC-level sample size on paper, his opponents thus far have lacked the staying power, stamina and scrambling/wrestling ability that Delgado has shown glimpses of.

We all know how little I think of former-fraudulent winning streak holder William Gomis, but the French fighter – who also fought from southpaw – showed an ability that previous regional southpaws showed in regards to tagging Amil with everything from spinning attacks to classic southpaw weapons (all of which are tools Delgado, a switch-stance fighter, possesses).

Again, it’s not a confident pick outside of my forecast for a wild fight between two durable cats – so the only bet I’ll have on this outside of my funsie parlay is maybe a round robin leg of “fight ends by split decision,” which is currently listed at a crazy 6-1 in some houses.

Further down on the prelims is another live underdog in Viacheslav Borshchev (who I’ll feel compelled to bet if he gets back to +160 or better).

I initially came in leaning toward a McKinney knockout in Round 1 given how chinny and borderline washed Borshchev has looked as of late, but upon further review of the tape I realized that I could be *slightly* overdramatizing things.

Although Borshchev certainly looks regressed when it comes to both his dynamism and durability in the striking department, the Russian is still an incredibly competent striker who can put combinations together, as well as counter effectively. And for whatever you can say about Borshshev’s striking regressions, you can also argue that he, in turn, has also gotten a lot better at his wrestling and submission defense in recent years, showing solid surivival capabilities (as he technically didn’t tap to Chase Hooper!).

*EDIT (6/27/25): I still believe that waiting to play Borshchev live is the smartest option, but I ended up firing on the Under 1.5 despite my traditonal hate for Unders. Aside from this one likely to hit one way or the other (as I get some Borshchev early finish equity in it as well), but I really wanted to get some HOBOCOP money line action in a a parlay in case Hobo blows his wad early and busts my Over but was struggling for another leg. I didn’t want to keep piling on exposure to Pantoja who I’m already heavy on, so I went with my usual layered coverage appoach (as this parlay, in conjuction with my slave late round props and separate Over play on the Hobocop fight, offers me multiple coverage/double dipping angles given how I structured the bets (and I can still live bet out of my under exposure with my plan to bet Slava live if he’s still alive toward the end of the first).

Should Borshchev survive the first frame, then I really like his chances here. I picked him to win and sprinkled in rounds 2 and 3 pre-flop, but we’ll see if I find the balls and proper number to grab his money line as I’ll definitely be leaning more toward live bet opportunities for the Borshchev side.

Even though I don’t think I can play it due to both the level of the fight and the nature in which it got put together, I like the southpaw Jackson McVey to channel his inner-Timothy by exploding onto the scene as another live underdog.

Lastly but not leastly, we have Alin Hines.

I actually don’t like Hines at all as a live underdog but I just wanted to bring up the fact that he looks like my favorite 80’s character actor, James Tolkan, reincarnated.

Southpaw stats for UFC 317:

• Renato Moicano, who faces southpaw Beneil Dariush, is 3-2 opposite UFC-level lefties (Wins: Jailin Turner, Drew Dober, Benoit Saint-Denis; Losses: Rafael dos Anjos, Islam Makhachev).

• Johsua Van, who faces southpaw Brandon Royval at UFC 317, is officially 1-0 against dedicated, UFC-level southpaws, beating Rei Tsuruya.

• Viacheslav Borshchev, who faces southpaw Terrance McKinney at UFC 317, is officially 0-2-1 against dedicated, UFC-level southpaws (losing to Chase Hooper and Tom Nolan, while drawing with Nazim Sadykhov).

• Christopher Ewert, who faces fellow newcomer and southpaw Jackson McVey at UFC 317, is officially 0-0 opposite UFC-level southpaws.

Locked in picks and plays (so far):

Picks:

• Topuria

• Pantoja

• Royval

• Moicano

• Lima

• HOBOCOP

• Delgado

• Cortez

• Borshchev

• Smith

• Diniz

• McVey

Plays:

• Pantoja -230 (3.5-U), by sub +200 (.5-U)

• Royval +105 (1.5-U), by sub +700 (.17-U), rd 2 +1000 (.17-U)

• HOBOCOP-Hermansson O 2.5 -130 (1.5-U)

• Moicano-Dariush U 2.5 -110 (1.10-U)

• Borshchev rd 2 +650 (.37-U), rd 3 +1600 (.17-U)

• Oliveira sub +920 (.33-U)

• Topuria sub +500 (.5-U)

• HOF 2-legger: Boshchev rd 2/Pantoja sub = +2150 (.15-U)

• HOF semi-cycle: Smith KO/Cortez-Araujo starts rd 3/Hobocop dec/Topuria sub = +2650 (.10-U)

• DOP parlay: Borshchev/Delgado/Royval/Pantoja = +1065 (.20-U)

• Parlay: McKinney-Borsh U 1.5/HOBOCOP = +109 (1.37-U)

• Round Robin/long-shot parlay: Borshchev rd 2 +650, Amil-Delgado ends in split +650, Royval-Van ends in split +350, Pantoja sub +200, Topuria-Oliveira ends by sub +275 (1.70-U exposure on RR, .01-U exposure on long-shot parlay)

*NOTE: So since I used some super cheeky props for my round robin, alternative round robins at houses without stuff like “fight ends by split decision” not being available will force us to cook a bit contrarian/from left field. So, if your house doesn’t offer the selections above, here’s some alternate options: Instead of “fight ends in sub” for the main event, I’ll probably just put Topuria by sub since that’s all that’s playable plus money-wise from him (and I’ll probably be sprinkling small over the counter unofficially on Do Bronx/his sub props anyways). For Royval-Van split prop I’ll be just riding with my hot round read of Royval in Round 2. And for the Delgado-Amil split prop I’ll probably just replace that with Amil by decision as a hedge for this week’s DOP parlay since he’s super live anyways should the fight make it that far. Borshchev round 2 remains the same as it should be just as widely available as Pantoja by sub.

That’s all for now… feel free to check back here for updates throughout the week.